Three games isn't enough to decide an NFL division.
It is enough to start noticing when something weird is happening.
The Minnesota Vikings are 3-0 and rightfully sitting atop the NFC North. The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions are both 2-1, while the Green Bay Packers have stumbled to 1-2.
Nothing particularly shocking there.
Then look at point differential.
Chicago: +36.
Minnesota: +30.
Detroit: -2.
Green Bay: -35.
Somehow, the Bears own the best point differential in the NFC North despite not owning the best record.
That deserves some attention.
The Bears have been better than their record suggests
Point differential isn't some magic formula that tells us exactly how the season will finish.
Through three games, it can also get distorted by one blowout.
The Bears certainly have one of those.
Chicago opened the season by hanging 59 points on Carolina in a 59-37 win. That's going to juice the numbers.
But what happened afterward makes the statistic considerably more interesting.
Chicago lost 9-3 to Minnesota in Week 2. The offense was dreadful, but the defense held an undefeated Vikings team to nine points and 246 total yards.
Then the Bears responded by beating the Philadelphia Eagles 27-7.
So, yes, the 59-point opener helped create that +36 differential. Chicago has also allowed just 16 points over its last two games.
That's harder to dismiss.
Chicago is doing this without everything going right
Perhaps the strangest part is that the Bears haven't exactly cruised through September with a healthy roster and perfect quarterback play.
Caleb Williams has been sidelined by a hamstring injury. Chicago turned to Case Keenum against Philadelphia and will again be without Williams against the New York Jets.
Yet the Bears are still 2-1.
They've scored 89 points, the most of any team in the NFC North. They've allowed 53, trailing only Minnesota's 41 within the division.
That combination is why the point differential stands out.
Detroit has scored four more points than Chicago, but the Lions have surrendered 95. Green Bay has been outscored by 35 points already.
Chicago, meanwhile, has found different ways to survive.
That's generally what good teams have to do.
The Vikings still own something Chicago doesn't
There is one fairly obvious problem with getting too excited about the Bears' point differential.
Minnesota beat them.
Chicago's only loss came against the Vikings at Soldier Field, which gives Minnesota an early head-to-head advantage along with its one-game lead in the standings.
Nobody is handing out an NFC North trophy for point differential in October.
Still, Chicago's 9-3 loss looks a little different when placed alongside everything else the Bears have done.
They didn't get run off their own field by the division leader. Their defense gave the offense chance after chance to steal the game.
The offense couldn't do it.
That loss counts exactly the same, but it hardly looked like evidence of a massive gap between the two teams.
The next two weeks could change the NFC North quickly
This is where things get interesting.
Chicago hosts the 1-2 Jets on Sunday before traveling to Lambeau Field to face Green Bay in Week 5.
That Packers game could become enormous.
Green Bay is already 1-2 and 0-1 inside the NFC North. Chicago is also searching for its first division victory after losing to Minnesota.
A Bears win at Lambeau would give Chicago its third victory in four games and push Green Bay even further behind in the division race.
Suddenly, the conversation around the NFC North could look very different.
The Bears haven't proven they're the best team in the division after three games. Minnesota's undefeated record and head-to-head victory give the Vikings plenty of reason to feel good about where they stand.
But Chicago's +36 point differential shouldn't be ignored, either.
The Bears are scoring. Their defense has settled down dramatically since Week 1. They've already survived an injury to their starting quarterback.
Maybe the NFC North isn't Minnesota followed by everybody else.
Three weeks in, the numbers suggest Chicago belongs squarely in the conversation.
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