A month ago, the Chicago Bears were trying to keep their season from slipping away while Caleb Williams recovered from an injury. Now they're 4-2, Williams is coming off a terrific performance against Atlanta, and ESPN is discussing whether Chicago has enough to reach the Super Bowl.
That conversation would have sounded ridiculous after the Bears' 1-2 start. Yet Wednesday's First Take panel wasn't dismissing the possibility. Jeff Saturday and Kimberley A. Martin both liked what they'd seen from Chicago. Chris "Mad Dog" Russo wasn't nearly as enthusiastic about the team's chances of getting through the NFC.
Their biggest concern had less to do with Williams than the teams Chicago would have to beat.
ESPN panel isn't convinced Bears can survive NFC North
Saturday likes Ben Johnson's offense. He also sees improvement defensively, although he's not ready to declare that unit championship-caliber.
"I want to see more from their defense," Saturday said.
His reasoning was pretty simple. Chicago might be able to throw its way past opponents in October, but that becomes considerably harder when the weather turns and defenses start dictating games.
Martin was more concerned about the schedule.
Minnesota is undefeated. Green Bay isn't going anywhere. And even if Chicago continues playing well, there's no guarantee the Bears will finish ahead of either team.
"I just don't know in that division if they're going to be able to get there," Martin said.
She's got a point. Chicago could win plenty of games and still spend January traveling to somebody else's stadium.
Russo went a step further, identifying San Francisco as the NFL's best team. With the 49ers unbeaten, he sees them as another considerable obstacle between Chicago and a championship.
Caleb Williams is making his critics reconsider
What makes the discussion interesting is how differently Williams is being evaluated compared to last season.
Saturday pointed out that Williams completed just 58% of his passes a year ago. This season, that number has climbed to approximately 73%.
Against Atlanta, Williams completed 30 of 36 attempts. More telling was Saturday's observation that the quarterback went 26-for-26 when he wasn't pressured.
That's not a small improvement for someone whose accuracy was regularly questioned.
Williams isn't spending nearly as much time trying to rescue broken plays. He's taking what defenses give him, getting the ball out and making throws that were anything but routine for him last season.
But Saturday also identified something that could bring back some of those old problems.
Williams still has a tendency to chase the spectacular play when the situation doesn't require one. Against an aggressive defense, that habit can become expensive.
Patriots could reveal whether Bears are legitimate contenders
Thursday's matchup against New England should be fascinating for that reason alone.
The Patriots are 4-2 and have won three straight. Their defense won't necessarily give Williams the clean pocket he enjoyed against Atlanta.
Saturday expects New England to show pressure before the snap, then occasionally drop defenders into coverage while rushing only four.
That can be a miserable assignment for a young quarterback. The protection looks one way before the snap, the defense changes afterward, and suddenly a throw that appeared available isn't there.
"This will be the litmus test for Caleb Williams," Saturday said.
It's also a test for Chicago's offensive line. If the Patriots can create confusion without bringing extra rushers, Williams will have fewer opportunities to wait for receivers to get open.
The Bears don't have to look like Super Bowl favorites Thursday. They do, however, need to show that the progress everyone is celebrating can hold up against a defense built to challenge it.
Chicago has already survived three games without Williams. Now comes the more interesting question: how good can this team become with him?
The ESPN panel seems convinced the Bears belong in the playoff discussion. Whether they belong in the championship conversation is another story.
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