The Chicago Bears won 11 games, captured the NFC North and eliminated Green Bay from the playoffs. They also relied on a formula that will be almost impossible to repeat.
Last season was a blast. It may not have been the beginning of a championship run.
Turnovers covered some ugly Bears numbers
Chicago finished last season with a plus-22 turnover differential, the best mark in the NFL. The defense produced 33 takeaways, while Caleb Williams and the offense gave the ball away only 11 times.
That is how a flawed team wins 11 games.
The Bears allowed 415 points, ranking 23rd in scoring defense. Their plus-26 point differential was solid but hardly dominant. They went 9-0 when forcing multiple turnovers and 2-6 when they failed to reach that number.
Takeaways are valuable. Depending on two or three every Sunday is something else.
Interceptions bounce off hands. Fumbles land near the other team. A quarterback throws the ball away instead of trying to squeeze it into coverage. If Chicago’s turnover advantage falls from ridiculous to merely good, several close wins could easily move into the other column.
The Chicago Bears did not strengthen every weak spot
Drew Dalman’s unexpected retirement created a problem at center. Chicago responded by trading for Garrett Bradbury, an experienced replacement who was available for a future fifth-round pick for a reason.
The Bears also traded DJ Moore and a fifth-round selection to Buffalo for the No. 60 pick. They later moved down and drafted tight end Sam Roush in the third round. Perhaps Roush develops into a useful weapon, but Chicago turned a durable receiver with four career 1,100-yard seasons into another projection.
The defense brings larger concerns.
Coby Bryant, one of the team’s prominent free-agent additions, underwent knee surgery and could miss most of the season. Chicago then traded Gervon Dexter to Atlanta for cornerback Clark Phillips III and a fifth-round pick. Dexter was not a dominant lineman, but he started every game and recorded six sacks last year.
That is a surprising amount of certainty to remove from a team supposedly preparing to chase a Super Bowl.
A far tougher schedule is waiting
The Bears benefited from one of the NFL’s friendlier schedules last season. They now face one of its most difficult.
That change does not guarantee a collapse. Good teams beat strong opponents, and Ben Johnson has already shown he can get more from this roster than his predecessor ever did.
The concern is how narrow Chicago’s path looked even during its best moments. Five fourth-quarter comebacks made the season memorable. They also meant the Bears repeatedly needed late escapes.
That style is thrilling until the ball stops bouncing correctly.
Chicago can improve and still win fewer games
Calling last season a possible mirage does not mean the Bears were frauds. They earned the division title and playoff victory. Williams could also take another step and become the reason Chicago remains in contention.
Still, development does not always show up in the win column. The Bears could play cleaner football, receive a better season from Williams and finish 9-8 because the turnovers decline and the schedule stiffens.
Chicago proved it could surprise the NFL last season. Repeating it will be considerably harder now that nobody is overlooking the Bears—and fortune has already sent the invoice
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