Chicago Bulls: What happens if Jimmy Butler breaks the bank next year?
Jimmy Butler could qualify for a “supermax” contract next summer. Could that ultimately be bad news for the Chicago Bulls?
Aside from the impending 2017 NBA Draft, most news involving the Chicago Bulls hinges upon Jimmy Butler’s future with the organization. Will the Bulls keep Butler for next season and beyond for more runs at the Eastern Conference playoffs? Or might Gar Foreman and John Paxson finally trade the Bulls star, possibly for a top-ten draft pick?
But within that choice, particularly if Butler continues to excel, lies a potential hidden consequence. Specifically, Butler could play himself into a check the Bulls could struggle to cash if they’re serious about contending.
The Designated Player Exception
Lost in trade talks and speculation about Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade‘s futures is Butler’s impending free agency. And if he improves upon last year’s performance, he might cost the Bulls a ton.
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Should Butler make an All-NBA team in 2018 or 2019, he would qualify for the designated player exception (DPE). The very same designation that Paul George and Gordon Hayward didn’t qualify for because Butler made the All-NBA third team.
On one hand, this player exception helps teams like the Bulls retain the star players they draft, such as Butler. It’s not all about money, but it doesn’t hurt that Chicago could offer Butler five years and $246.4 million if he qualifies. If you’re big on financial security, a “supermax” deal beats a normal max contract any day. Plus, these contracts can guard against stars leaving in free agency to form super teams á la the Golden State Warriors.
Is Keeping Butler Worth It?
However, assuming Butler qualifies for this exception and the Bulls hope to keep him, what will the damage be? With the DPE, Butler could command up to 35% of the Bulls’ total salary cap each year. Fortunately, the Bulls may go over the salary cap in the first year of that deal to pay Butler, allowing them to keep more money on the books. But after that, Chicago has to get creative.
Shelling out the cash for Butler could mean a big overhaul is coming to the Bulls’ current roster. While Rondo and Wade are likely gone after 2017-18, what about the approaching free agency of Nikola Mirotic after next season? If re-signed, he could earn $10 million a year, which is a not-insignificant chunk of the Bulls’ potential cap space.
Also, what if the Bulls wanted to sign a Blake Griffin or DeMarcus Cousins via free agency? As both have 7-9 years of experience, their max deals would be worth up to 30% of the salary cap. That could mean about 65% of the Bulls’ resources put into two players. With the Bulls already relying on mediocre talent, it’s hard to see them building a great team with even less to spend.
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Soon, the Chicago Bulls must decide whether they believe Butler is a franchise cornerstone or not. If they think he is, then signing him to a supermax deal becomes academic. If they’re not sold on him, why consider investing more than a third of their overall resources in him yearly?
It all comes back to the nagging question: can the Bulls win a title with Butler as their best player? The next few months will tell us if the front office is willing to pay to find out.