Predicting September Outcomes for a Cubs Playoff Birth

The Chicago Cubs did everything right in August to put themselves in a position for a playoff birth if September goes equally as well.

In August, we predicted the Cubs would need to go 18-8 to qualify for the playoffs. Buoyed by sweeps of Pittsburgh and Washington, the Cubs went exactly 18-8 in August which leaves them 3.5 games behind a Wild Card spot.

We thought 18-8 would put them in one of the top three Wild Card spots, but Arizona (18-9), San Diego (18-9), Atlanta (16-13), and the Mets (15-13) outperformed expectations. As noted in August, the Cubs dug a big enough hole in May and June that winning isn't enough - other teams need to lose. Thankfully, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Cincinnati all complied and had losing records in August.

As of September 2, San Diego and Arizona sit in the 1 and 2 spots with Atlanta taking up the third bid. The New York Mets are only .5 games behind Atlanta with the Cubs sitting 3.5 games behind the Braves.

Knowing they had one of the easiest schedules in the league, the Cubs geared up and performed extremely well in all facets of the game in August. The starting rotation continues to be a force of nature with their four key starters all under a 4.00 ERA (James Tallion 3.66, Javier Assad 3.21, Shota Imanaga 3.13, and Justin Steele 3.09). The bullpen, which throughout the season has been unbelievable, unhittable, unbearable, or unable to get an out at various times, was unstoppable in August.

Porter Hodge (1.80 ERA and .91 WHIP) has developed into a reliable closer while Tyson Miller (2.13), Nate Pearson (acquired from Toronto at the deadline has a 2.13 ERA in August), Ethan Roberts (2.93), Drew Smyly (2.89), and Keegan Thompson (0 ERA in August) have been great in late-inning relief. Rightfully so, the Cubs are seventh in ERA in the league.

However, the biggest transformation last month came offensively. Though LF Ian Happ, RF Cody Bellinger, and DH Seiya Suzuki have all performed adequately, the bottom of the lineup is rolling. SS Dansby Swanson (.261 batting average and .783 OPS in August), C Miguel Amaya (.318 and .942 OPS), and CF Pete Crow-Armstrong (.314 and .933 OPS) have all been on a tear since the All-Star break. Even newly acquired catcher Christian Bethancourt hit .391 in August with a 1.33 OPS, turning the worst offensive position on the Cubs into a highlight reel.

Most importantly, the Cubs are 13th in runs scored. They currently average 4.6 runs per game in 2024 but notched six runs per contest in August. If these trends can continue in September, the Cubs should be playing in October.

According to Tankathon, the Cubs' strength of schedule in September is middle of the pack. At 16th in the league, the Cubs have to play the Dodgers, Phillies, and Yankees, but also get the Rockies, Athletics, Nationals (who they just swept), Pirates, and Reds.

Starting off in September, the Cubs just lost a tough one to the Pirates (lost 5-3 despite leading 3-0 late) and have to sit Justin Steele with elbow soreness in the second game of the series. Kyle Hendricks, who has been unreliable, will start in his place.

As for the competition, the Mets (4th hardest) and Diamondbacks (6th hardest) have tough schedules and the Padres (7th easiest) and Atlanta (6th easiest) can breeze through September. If we use the model (teams win 2 out of 3 against bad teams and lose 2 out of 3 against good teams), the Cubs will come in fourth place for the Wild Card playoffs which is more commonly known as not in the playoffs.

The Cubs will have to break the model and sweep the A's and the Rockies. That will be slightly difficult because that would mean winning six in a row. They could sweep the Nationals, but they just did that, or they could sweep the Reds to end the year. Either way, that would likely edge out the Mets for the third playoff spot.

Anybody who paid attention to the Cubs last year remembers that September was a disaster. Starting pitching and the offense flopped while the relief pitching was exhausted. As a result, they missed the playoffs. The Cubs feel like they are surging and deeper than last year to fight off fatigue. Steele as a late scratch to begin September is not a great start, though.

All schedules according to MLB.com.

Cubs

Series that we have to win. The Cubs get last-place Pittsburgh and Colorado along with second-to-last Cincinnati, Washington, and A's. The Cubs need to win two out of three of these series and sweep the A's and Rockies.

Tough series. The Cubs play the first-place Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers. Oh boy. At least the Yankees are at home, but let's hope the Cubs can win at least one out of three in these series.

September record: 17-9

Atlanta

Atlanta has the sixth-easiest schedule in the league.

Series that you have to win. The Braves play Colorado, the Blue Jays, Cincinnati four times, Miami, and Kansas City (though the Royals are fighting for their own playoff spot). They will probably win at least two out of these three series and three of four games against the Reds.

Series where they can help the Cubs. Atlanta does play the Mets. At least one of the teams will lose, but we need some major losses. Let's assume Atlanta takes two of three from the Mets.

Tough Series. Atlanta gets the Dodgers four times in September. Assume they split.

September record: 16-9

Arizona

Arizona has the sixth-hardest schedule in the league.

Series that you have to win. The Diamond backs play the Rangers and Rockies. Assume they take 2 of 3 from these teams.

Series where they can help the Cubs. Though the Giants are flailing, the Diamondbacks could keep them that way and win 4 out of 6. The Diamondbacks also play the Padres where they could lose 2 out of 3 (though obviously beating the Padres is also beneficial).

Tough series. The Diamondbacks get the Dodgers, surging Astros, and Milwaukee (six times) at the end of the year. Let assume they drop 2 out of 3 for those series.

September Record: 12-13.

San Diego

San Diego has the seventh easiest schedule in the league.

Series you have to win. The Padres play the Tigers and the White Sox to finish off the year. They will win two out of three of these games, though obviously, the White Sox are a sweep candidate.

Series where they can help the Cubs. The Padres could make sure the Giants don't rebound by winning four out of six from them.

Tough series. The Padres play the Mariners who are looking for a Wild Card spot as well, let's assume they split the two-game series. The Padres finish the year against the Astros, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks. They will win two against the Diamondbacks and lose two of three to the Astros and Dodgers.

September record: 14-10

New York

The Mets have the fourth-hardest schedule in MLB.

Series you have to win: The Mets get to play the Chicago White Sox, Red Sox, Reds, Nationals, and Blue Jays in the beginning of the month. Let's assume they win 2 of these 3-game series.

Tough series. The second half of the month is a nightmare for the Mets. Let's hope it becomes just that in the waking world. They have to play the Phillies seven times, and then the Braves and Brewers three times each. Let's assume they lose two of three to the Braves and Brewers and four of seven to the Phillies.

September record: 14-12.

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