Predicting August Outcomes to Keep the Cubs Competitive
The Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, kept his promise and did not acquire any short-term rentals at the trade deadline. However, he strengthened the Cubs lineup and pitching staff by acquiring All-Star 3B Isaac Paredes and P Nate Pearson who has a fastball in the upper 90s.
Coming out of the All-Star break, the Cubs didn't look like a rejuvenated team trying to make a playoff run but that all changed in August. The Cubs took three of four from the Cardinals, two of three from the Twins, and swept the White Sox in two games. Winning the series against good teams is half the battle for the rest of the year.
The other half will be to beat the teams you should beat (the White Sox) because the Cubs have one of the easiest schedules to end the year.
Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and the Dodgers look solid for divisional winners, but there is a strong cluster of teams vying for the three wildcard spots. As of August 11, the Cubs are right in that mix, three games out of the Wild Card spot competing against San Diego, Arizona, New York, Atlanta, St. Louis, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati.
It is a lot of competition, but it also means that it is anyone's game. Due to the Cubs' struggles in May and June, the Cubs aren't in charge of their own destiny. Just looking at August, they need to win games, but they need other teams to lose.
Tactically, we know what the Cubs have to do to win: the starting pitching needs to keep killing it and the offense needs to continue to hit like they have in the first half of August. That is simple. What is difficult is to plan out the road to the Wild Card.
We categorized each Wild Card candidate's schedules as series that they have to win (poor teams), series where they could help themselves (playing against Wild Card rivals), or tough series (playing against first or second-place teams).
When you play out the scenarios (you can see the detailed schedule below), the Cubs have the best winning record of any Wild Card team and should gain considerably in the Wild Card hunt. St. Louis has the toughest road in August. Assuming Arizona holds on to the top Wild Card spot, the rest of the pack could look like the following at the end of August:
* Padres, .550
* Cubs, .514
* Mets, .514
* Atlanta, .514
* Giants, .510
* Cardinals, .500
* Reds, .489
* Pirates, .466
If the Cubs can execute, this places them in the third (or at least tied for third) Wild Card spot in the National League, five games behind the Padres. One of the issues is that the Cubs need the Padres to keep winning against teams like the Pirates, Mets, and Cardinals to drive distances between them and the Cubs.
Below are the detailed schedules.