Mel Kiper Jr. thinks the Chicago Bears could get a first-round pick if they trade quarterback Justin Fields this offseason.
Kiper also lambasted the Indianapolis Colts in 1994 for not taking Trent Dilfer. Needless to say, Mel's thoughts are sometimes way off.
Although Mel is not a hot-take type of analyst, so maybe he knows something.
Then again, Kiper gets a little hyper about his beliefs in a player. Last month the consensus around the league was Justin Fields would fetch a pick as high as a second-round choice. Considering Sam Darnold netted three draft picks to the New York Jets from the Carolina Panthers and none of them were a first-rounder, the Bears should not get their hopes up for a top-10 pick.
Justin is a more dynamic playmaker than Darnold. Darnold's passing numbers through three seasons were a tick better (more passing yards and touchdowns) than Fields has put up in three years. Although Justin is not seeing ghosts out there like Darnold was during his final days with the Jets.
Plus, the Panthers make bad trades so using the Darnold trade as precedent could be a tough sell for the Bears.
The Bears appear headed to be moving on from Fields because of his inability to grow at the rate necessary as a pocket passer to make the franchise forget about drafting Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
A first-round pick from the Atlanta Falcons seems a bit high. Speculating the Falcons wanting to trade for Justin is not.
Atlanta needs a quarterback in the worst way. They are picking eighth, so they are not in a position to draft Williams, Maye, or even Jayden Daniels who is expected to go in the top five. Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix are quarterbacks with first-round grades that the Falcons could take. Penix Jr. is a boom-or-bust prospect though, and Nix might be nothing more than a system quarterback.
The Falcons are not that far away from being competitive. They just need a quarterback, so they might want to trade for the hometown star, Justin Fields who still has plenty of potential.
Realistic Falcons-Bears Justin Fields Trade Packages
Three picks should still be the baseline package the team is seeking. The Bears are trading a quarterback popular with the locker room and at least half of the fan base. If they are going to trade him away, it should not be just for one pick.
In this deal, the Chicago Bears recoup a second-round pick that they currently do not have. The Bears traded their second-round selection to Washington in the Montez Sweat deal.
While that deal has been amazing for the Bears, getting a second-round pick back for Fields mitigates what was given up for Sweat even more, especially since the Bears traded the No. 40 pick. The Bears recoup a second-rounder that is three spots lower than their original. The fourth-rounder adds to the two the Bears already have in that round.
Instead of trying to get a sixth-round pick like the Jets did a few years ago, it would be better to ask for a conditional sixth-round choice next year. It could become a fourth or fifth based on Fields' performance or if the Falcons get to the playoffs if Justin leads them there.