The consensus is that the Bears' offseason has gone swimmingly so far. Bolstering the offensive and defensive lines has gone accordingly to plan, if not exceeded the plan. Maybe a solid third receiver option could still be in the works like Keenan Allen's role last year. But overall, fantastic.
To finalize a great offseason, the Bears need a killer draft. Everyone has weighed in on the possibilities, the needs, the wants, and the shoulds. NFL.com says that the Bears draft priorities, in this order, are offensive line, defensive line, running back, safety, and tight end.
And the analysts seem to agree. In their latest mock drafts on NFL.com, the Bears are predicted to pick the following players:
- Mike Band says the Bears will pick Tyler Warren, TE.
- Gennaro Filice chose Mykel Williams, Edge.
- Lance Zierlein chose Ashton Jeanty, RB.
- Eric Eldhom chose Will Campbell, OL.
- Bucky Brooks chose Omarian Hampton, RB.
- Daniel Jeremiah chose Will Campbell, OL.
These choices are a radical change from the pre-free agency mock drafts where every single analyst picked the Bears to choose an offensive lineman. Free agency changed many people's minds.
But who is right?
The Absurd
We can pick on Mike Band, but many analysts across many publications have the Bears picking Warren or another tight end at the number 10 draft spot. This choice is ridiculous.
Everybody wants to point to what a star Ben Johnson turned Sam Laporta into at Detroit. Laporta had 86 receptions, 889 yards, and 10 TD his rookie season. Though the numbers fell in 2024, 60/726/7, the numbers are still great for almost any tight end in the league.
Bears' tight end, Cole Kmet, had a 2024 stat line of 47 receptions, 474 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Sounds like the Bears could use an upgrade.
No Way
Those numbers are Cole Kmet's lowest numbers since his rookie year in 2020. In 2023, he had 73 receptions, 719 yards, and six touchdowns. Basically, Pro Bowl type numbers. Any Bears fan that has watched Kmet since his rookie year knows he has the potential to be in the conversation with Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and the rest of the top five tight ends in the league.
The fact is the Chicago offense was so inconsistent and, in many cases, so awful, Kmet could not put up the numbers that he should. Kmet had three games where he saw zero targets and six games where he saw three or less targets. Under any administration, that is a criminal offense.
The Bears are not in need of a tight end. They signed Durham Smythe as a backup, but Kmet has been extremely durable in his time with the Bears.
The Bears will not draft a tight end and Kmet will make the Pro Bowl this year.
The Interesting
Similarly, Ben Johnson executed a phenomenal running back tandem in Detroit with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Of course, he is going to recreate that in Chicago, which means we need to draft a running back.
Not so fast. D'Andre Swift was the beginning of that transformation; Gibbs is the second version of Swift. With Detroit, Swift averaged 68 targets, 52 receptions and 560 yards a year.
Swift was targeted 52 times by the Bears for 42 receptions and 386 yards. Even his rookie year was better than this. It wasn't like we didn't see flashes of his ability out of the backfield. He had 72 yards against the Rams and 47 yards against the Panthers in Week 4 and 5, and then he never saw that production ever again. Why did the Bears abandon Swift as a receiver?
At 5'9", though 215 pounds, it is fair to ask if he can be a lead rusher. He had over 1,000 yards with the Eagles and had a personal record 253 carries with the Bears (959 yards). His yards per carry, 3.8, was the worst in his career, but how much of that has to do with the offensive line issues?
He did prove he is not the third-and-short or goal line guy who is going to move the pile. However, he is a powerful dual threat running back. You just have to use him that way.
Roschon Johnson is the Bears' number two running back at 6'0 and 225 pounds and showed bruiser potential last year. Due to the disaster that was the Bears offense last year, did he get a fair shot at showing what he could do?
Should they give Johnson another shot or do the Bears really expend their number 10 pick on the top running back? If the Bears think that free agency has filled all of their holes and they have the luxury of just taking the best available player, running back makes sense. It would have to be Jeanty though, the top player at the position. If he isn't available, the Bears should move on from running back.
In reality, the Bears will probably take a safer route.
The Bold
Picking a defensive lineman would be a bold move for the Bears. The Bears made some serious transactions on the defensive line over the offseason, picking up Dayo Odeyingbo on the end and Grady Jarret on the inside. Teaming with Montez Sweat, these additions look like a pretty formidable pass rush that needs improvement this year.
Given injuries, you could always use depth at this position, though. Having an athletic rookie with fresh legs on obvious pass downs could turn a great pass rush into something incredible. Filice's choice of Mykel Williams is a strong choice as most mock drafts have him as the second edge rusher off the table after Abdul Carter.
With the draft depth at defensive line, edge, and linebacker, the Bears could be prudent by waiting to use one of their two second round picks for an ascendent talent that might not be getting the publicity as some of the first rounders.
Defensive line is not an insane pick for the Bears.
The Obvious
Coming full circle, the Bears still have a chance at getting one of the top offensive linemen in the draft. Either Will Campbell, Armand Membou, Josh Simmons, or Kelvin Banks, Jr. will be available for the Bears to choose.
Chicago heavily upgraded the line with acquisitions of Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman. But there is still a spot vacant and, again, injuries do happen. Last year the Bears played with one of the most combinations on the offensive line in the league.
The smart money is to guard your investment in Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson and fortify the line with as many superstars as possible. In the second round, the talent on the offensive line drops considerably.
One thing is for sure: With the transactions in the offseason, Chicago has positioned themselves for flexibility. They can't predict the trades and picks that will happen in front of them, but they will be able to pick a top 10 superstar from this draft no matter if it is pass rush, running back, or offensive lineman.
Or will they trade down?