It is no secret that the Bears need help on the line. Doesn't matter which one, offense or defense, the Bears need help. Matt Bowen from ESPN agrees in his article about ESPN's top 50 free agents. He thinks the Bears should pursue ex-Chief guard, Trey Smith.
At 25 years old, Trey Smith is ranked the 6th best run blocker in the league (75.1% win rate) and he is no slouch against the pass either. Bowen not only considers him the best offensive lineman in free agency, but Smith is identified as the second-best free agent in the market in total (Tee Higgins is number 1). NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal agrees as he names Trey Smith the second-best free agent in his 101 best free agent article.
There are some crucial questions that need to be answered about the pursuit of Smith being a core piece of the Bears' offseason, however.
Is Smith the Right Answer?
There are only two ways to infuse talent into a football team quickly: free agency or the draft. The Bears have the 10th pick in the draft this year. Not quite in that middle of the pack limbo area, but close. Almost all of the analysts pick the Bears to pick an offensive lineman.
NFL.com's Bucky Brooks, Daniel Jeremiah, Gennaro Filice, Lance Zierlein think the Bears will pick up Kelvin Banks, Jr. from Texas. However, Dan Parr and Cynthia Frelund think that the versatility of Armand Membou from Missouri is a better fit. Eric Edholm and Chad Reuter think that the consensus best offensive lineman in the draft, LSU's Will Campbell, will fall to the Bears if New England picks a defensive lineman.
The reality is, we don't know who is going to be available at Number 10.
But, since a rookie offensive lineman makes $6 million/year and a free agent is going to cost north of $20 million, why waste time and money on Trey Smith? That would definitely be the McCaskey way.
The answer is that Trey Smith has already become the player the Bears would hope the rookie becomes, and is in the prime of his career. Just ask Patrick Mahomes how valuable he is.
Is Smith the Only Answer?
Absolutely not. According to the Sun-Times, the Bears project to have the fourth most salary cap space in the NFL with over $80 million dollars depending on where the NFL lands the cap in 2025.
On Bowen's list, right after Smith, at Number 3, is Ronnie Stanley from Baltimore who boasts a 92.5% pass block win rate, 11th among offensive tackles. After Stanley, the offensive lineman talent gets a little thin until you get to number 26, Drew Dalman. Dalman is the best center on the market with a 95.1% pass block win rate, ninth among centers, and a great fit for the Bears.
But what about the defensive line? A pair of Eagles, Josh Sweat and Milton Williams, show up at seven and eight on the free agency list (you can never have too many Sweats on your defensive line). Each had two sacks in the Super Bowl. Bears alum, Khalil Mack, at number nine is predicted to go to the Packers (would that be a terrible twist of fate).
From a draft perspective, most analysts have Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter going to the Titans at number 1, though they could shop that pick. However, Daniel Jeremiah's top 50 draft prospects include Michigan DT Mason Graham, Georgia Edge Jalon Walker, and Georgia Edge Mykel Williams which all in the top 16. These players could fall to the Bears but will definitely not last until the second round.
What is the Right Combination?
With so much cap space, a solid first-round draft pick and two second-round picks, the Bears must do some serious damage this offseason. Assuming top free-agent lineman on either side of the football will cost at least $25 million, the Bears could do something like the following:
- Acquire Trey Smith in free agency
- Acquire Josh Sweat or Milton Williams in free agency
- Take Kelvin Banks from Texas in the first round.
The reality is that draft analysts probably bat around .250 on their draft predictions, we don't know if the Chiefs, Ravens, or Eagles will let these top players go without a fight, and we don't know what bidding wars might ensue. But if the Bears could make a splash in free agency and get a top offensive lineman and a top defensive lineman and then draft a top offensive lineman, things start looking very good for the Bears.
Then again, they looked pretty good last year, too. Really, the only wrong move would be to not spend money on game-changing players and instead spread the money around to the standard mediocre, aged players.