The moment that the Chicago Bears drafted tight end Colston Loveland in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL draft, it was clear that Cole Kmet's future was uncertain.
The veteran TE's production has declined each of the past two seasons, becoming increasingly less important since Caleb Williams took over as the starting quarterback. The change saw Kmet go from 719 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2023 to only 474 receiving yards and four touchdowns in the following season.
Kmet's step back set up Loveland's draft selection and another season of regression, tallying only 347 receiving yards with a pair of touchdowns in 2025. He is less and less important to the Chicago offense, opening the door for a split this offseason.
Bears Have Backed Themselves into Frustrating Corner with Cole Kmet Decision
While some Bears would love to keep Kmet around for another year, the financial benefits that a divorce brings might be too enticing to ignore.
Releasing Kmet after June 1 would free up $10 million in cap space, according to Spotrac. This clears the deck for Loveland and would allow Kmet to fill a primary role in a new landing spot.
For the Bears, it might be wise to replace Kmet with a block-first TE to help the run game and keep Williams on his feet. Chicago averaged the third-most rushing yards per game and per carry last season, and after losing RBs coach Eric Bieniemy, the backfield could use all the help it can get.
Kmet made it clear that he was surprised Loveland was drafted by the Bears last April. Fast forward now, and Chicago's decision isn't surprising after another down year from the veteran TE. Meanwhile, Loveland is a star in the making, and his game could reach new heights if he's no longer sharing targets with Kmet.
The downside of a potential split is losing a proven pass-catcher. It's important to remember that Loveland's rookie season ended with a concussion, so it remains to be seen if he'll face lingering symptoms this offseason. That's why it'd be understandable if the Bears wanted to keep Kmet as a 'break-in-case-of-emergency' option.
At the same time, Chicago is projected to be more than $9.6 million over the cap for the 2026 offseason, according to OverTheCap. Cutting or trading Kmet would push the Bears' cap into the positive and begin to create the needed space to make depth improvements.
In other words, there is no winning in a situation like this one. Creating more cap space would make general manager Ryan Poles' job easier, but it also means having one less threat at Williams' disposal, even if Kmet hasn't met expectations lately.
That's why, no matter how it ends, the Bears' Kmet situation will continue being a pain until it's solved.