The Chicago Bears have yet to have a 4,000-yard passer in franchise history. That is why Matt Odaka of NFL Network wrote that 4,000 is the number that will define the Bears in 2026. Caleb Williams has the best chance of breaking that streak and nearly did it in his second NFL season. After 3,942 yards in 2025, Okada notes that the race to 4,000 is on for Williams and the Bears.
Will Caleb Williams reach 4,000 yards with the Chicago Bears in 2026?
The case for him to get there is clear. Williams was close last year, and he was in an offense with which he was unfamiliar. Ben Johnson and the Bears did not make things easy on Williams early on, and he was learning his second offensive system and working with his third offensive coordinator while playing his second NFL season.
It was fair to think that Williams would struggle early on and not produce as consistently. However, now that he has a full offseason to debrief and understand what the offense asked for, there is a good chance for him to improve.
The skill players lost D.J. Moore, but that just opens more targets for Colston Loveland and Luther Burden, two players who ascended as rookies. If they can take a step forward, it should be easier for Williams to hit his goals.
Lastly, the Bears' defense is their biggest question. The unit might not be as good as the year prior, which could lead to the team entering more shootouts. They already had quite a few last year, but now Williams will be more equipped to handle them. All of that should lead to Williams throwing for more yards.
The case against it is clear as well. Ben Johnson is always going to lean on the run. Their offensive line should remain a strength, and they will continue to go to their two-headed attack at running back. The team is also expected to win more games this year.
Last year, they were a young team with a first-year head coach. So, the back-and-forth games came more often. Now that the team knows what they want, it should be easier to take hold of leads and control games more often.
In the best case, the Bears might not want Williams to hit 4,000 yards. However, if it is going to happen, this year is more likely than others.
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