Bears Best Bets & Score Prediction for Week 10 vs. Patriots

For the second week in a row, the Bears offense was stuck in reverse. They scored no touchdowns and for the second game in a row, had no passing touchdowns. Our bets didn't fare much better. We went 2-5 on the week pushing our year stat line to 20-22, though we are up money. The recap from last week is:

We said the Bears would win and took the money line and the Bears got destroyed.

We said that Caleb Williams would throw for over 221 yards and he threw for 217. Blame a 56% completion percentage because he had this one in the bag.

We tried to ride D'Andre Swift for another week with 70 yards, but he only did 51. Caleb Williams had five yards rushing after going for at least 25 yards the past three weeks.

We really pushed Rome Odunze's consistency over the last several weeks, so we bet over 40 yards and he came through with 104. I wish he could gift some of those yards to Kmet where we bet over 40 yards, and he didn't have a target. Not targeting Kmet is not a winning formula for the Bears. Swift rebounded with 31 yards receiving and we bet over 25.

The Cardinals aren't that great of a football team. In fact, their defense is borderline bad, but they sacked Caleb Williams six times. New England is much worse, which is great sign for the Bears.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting the Game

I thought the Bears would have responded much better to the loss to the Commanders, but showed up flat against the Cardinals. The Bears need a confidence boost before they have to play the whole NFC North twice at the back end of the season. The Patriots are just that confidence boost.

Per NFL.com, the Patriots give up the 10th-most yards to quarterbacks and the 10th-highest passer rating (97.5). They give up the seventh-most yards to the running game and the ninth-most touchdowns at a 4.5-yard-per-carry rate. The result is a 2-7 record, tied with the Saints, Giants, Raiders, and Jaguars for worst in the NFL.

This is a Jaguars/Rams/Panthers type of matchup that the Bears have been very good against. Though they had a decent showing against the Texans (who seem to be fading), we are still waiting for the Bears to get that signature win against an above .500 team.

On the offensive side, the Patriots throw for the second-fewest yards (the Bears are third-fewest), the fifth-worst passer rating (the Bears are ninth worst), and the third-fewest passing touchdowns (the Bears are 8th fewest). The Patriots' run offense is middling (yet better than the Bears).

Historically, this season, the Bears have excelled in these types of matchups.

Pick: Bears -6 -110

Betting the Quarterback

I really thought Williams would rise to the occasion with a good matchup against the Cardinals. But he wound up running for his life with an offensive line that did not provide nearly enough time to get through progressions. This should be a rebound game for him, but what can you really count on?

Per the Chicago Sun-Times, during that three-game win streak (Rams, Jaguars, Panthers) Williams had a 122.8 passer rating, 75.1 completion rate, and 8.5 yards per attempt. These are all top five rankings for quarterbacks during that timeframe. Since that streak, he has a 65.4 passer rating, 49.2% completion rate, 174 yards per game, and 5.4 yards per attempt. All these stats rank 31st, 32nd, or 33rd in the league (out of 32 teams) during that period.

DraftKings is providing positive odds at 225 yards, and they decreased the over to 206.5 from last week's 221.

Pick: Caleb Williams over 206.5 yards -115

Betting the Running Back

After a great week against the Commanders in Week 8 (129 yards, 7 yards per carry), Swift fell back to earth against the Cardinals and rushed for 51 yards at a 3.19 yards/carry. DraftKings is optimistic about Swift's performance this week and they aren't providing positive odds until 80 yards, up 10 more yards from last week.

They are again offering +125 (they offered -110 last week) for Williams at over 25 yards. After taking six sacks last week, I think Williams will take off a little quicker under pressure this week.

Pick: Caleb Williams over 25 yards +125

Betting the Receivers

How can you predict anything right now with the receiving core? Kmet is not being targeted, and DraftKings is giving an astounding +180 at just 40 yards. DJ Moore has had several down weeks in a row. Odunze has been the most predictable, and DraftKings has realized this by raising his high water mark from 40 yards to 50 yards. He is getting great odds at 50 yards with +155. D'Andre Swift continues to get great odds at just 25 yards with +145.

Let's throw some good vibes DJ Moore's way this week since he only needs 50 yards to get into positive odds.

Warning: You have to consider any bets on the wide receivers fliers at this point due to the complete unpredictability of the Bears passing offense.

Pick: D'Andre Swift over 25 yards +145, Rome Odunze over 50 yards +155, DJ Moore over 50 yards +105

More Bears news and rumors: