Best Bears Bets Week 9: Is Rome Odunze Predictable?

The Bears gave us a game last week that we would rather forget, which, unfortunately, will be absolutely impossible. However, our bets didn't do too badly. We went 3-3 on the day and our season record is 18-17. In review, last week looked like the following:

We said to take the Commanders and the money line, and that was two seconds away from being wrong. Unfortunately, botched Hail Mary coverage gave the Commanders the win at +124. Good money, bad loss.

We said to bet on Caleb Williams throwing over 224 yards, Cole Kmet receiving over 40 yards, and D'Andre Swift to snag over 25 yards. At the end of the first half, Williams had 36 yards passing and ended the game with 131 yards, 95 of which came in the fourth quarter. Nobody had a good game receiving and all those bets ended up losing.

However, the running game did well. D'Andre Swift ran for over 60 yards and Caleb Williams ran for over 25 yards which paid +130.

On to the Cardinals, all odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting the Game

The NFC West is a bit of a mess right now with Arizona, San Francisco, and Seattle all 4-4. In fact, the Rams are at 3-4, so this is anybody's division to win. Nonetheless, we can consider Arizona a first-place team.

Even though Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have thrown for the 10th-most passing touchdowns, they have thrown for the 10th-fewest yards in the league. Pair that with the Bears defense that holds quarterbacks to the fifth-fewest yards, the least touchdowns, and the worst quarterback rating; it doesn't look like the Cardinals will be able to move through the air on the Bears.

However, James Connor and the Cardinal running game is pretty good grounding out the seventh-most rushing yards in the NFL at a 5.2 yards/carry clip, good for second in the league. The Bears rush defense is much improved since the beginning of the year, now ranking 9th in yards on the ground, but giving up the ninth-most yards/carry at 4.7. Brian Robinson was only able to put up 65 yards last week against the Bears.

The bottom line is that the Bears defense basically held the high-flying Commanders offense to zero touchdowns. They literally scored on a prayer in the last moments of the game last week. The Bears defense just doesn't give up many points.

But which Bears offense will show up this week? For three quarters last week, the offense was in a coma. Right now, the one thing we can count on is Swift and the running game. Swift was phenomenal last week with 129 yards and 7.17 yards/carry. The Cardinals are middle of the pack, giving up 4.6 yards per carry, but they have given up the 7th most yards in the league. The Bears will feed Swift and probably involve Roschon Johnson a little more this week.

Even more tantalizing, the Cardinals give up the sixth most yards to the passing game, the 13th-most touchdowns, and the 6th-highest quarterback rating. It seems like Williams should have his pick of targets, but these are almost the same numbers as the Commanders. In fact, the Commanders defense gives up the fifth-highest quarterback rating in the league.

Of course, the Bears' passing game wasn't able to do anything until the fourth quarter last week. Williams would have had a decent game if not for his accuracy issues. Will those be fixed this week?

DraftKings thinks that this game is a toss-up, the Cardinals are favorites by 1.5 points.

Pick: Bears ML +105

Betting the Quarterback

DraftKings is not giving positive odds for Williams until 250 yards, which is paying +180. The over/under is basically the same as last week at 221 yards with poor odds; the over is -120.

With so little predictability in the Bears' offense, this is a tough bet to make. However, Williams and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron seem to be the masters of correction. And the Cardinals give up many passing yards.

Pick: Caleb Williams Over 221 Yards at -105 or Caleb Williams 2 Touchdowns at +135

Betting the Running Backs

DraftKings believes in Swift as much as I do and decreased the odds at 60 yards for the first time this week to -150, sending out vibes that he will easily hit that mark. At 70 yards, DraftKings is giving us +105.

Similarly, DraftKings has caught on to our Caleb Williams rushing bet which we have hit on three weeks in a row. At 25 yards, the payout is only -110 (it has been over +130 the last three weeks). 40 yards is a massive +245, but we can't count on that.

Pick: D'Andre Swift Over 70 yards at +105 & Caleb Williams Over 25 yards at -110

Betting the Receivers

The receiving corps, though excellent on paper, has been the toughest to predict on a week-by-week basis. In the end, the receivers' performance is reliant on Caleb Williams. Most disappointingly, D'Andre Swift didn't even have a target last week.

In a very bad passing game for the Bears against the Commanders, Rome Odunze had 40 yards. In a pretty good passing game against the Jaguars, Odunze had 40 yards. In a fantastic passing game against the Panthers, Odunze had 40 yards. Is this a trend?

Will DJ Moore break out this week just when we need him to? Will they involve Swift in the passing game? Will Cole Kmet come back to life?

I really have no idea.

Pick: Rome Odunze Over 40 yards at +110 & Cole Kmet Over 40 yards at +195

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.