Chicago Blackhawks: CBA salary cap likely means buyouts are coming

Under the new CBA, the Chicago Blackhawks may have some cap casualties.

On Monday, the NHL and NHLPA quietly agreed to a Collective Bargaining Agreement, keeping hockey alive and well through the 2025-2026 season. But after a close look at the details, the salary cap could be problematic for the Chicago Blackhawks. Per reports, the NHL Salary Cap will be “kept close” to $81.5 million for the next three seasons or until the league reaches a hockey-related revenue of $4.8 billion.

And with a projected total cap hit of $72 million for players already under contract – along with $1 million in cap overage from this season – the Blackhawks will have about $8.5 million to work with in free agency. Obviously, Stan Bowman, assuming he’s still around, will prioritize his guys first before looking to the free-agent market for help.

According to Spotrac, the Blackhawks’ free agents will include the following players:

A quick refresher that restricted free agents can be signed to an offer sheet by another team, but the Blackhawks will have a chance to match or decline the offer. Offer sheets are rare in hockey, but if the Blackhawks elect to let that player walk, they can potentially receive draft pick compensation.

Dominik Kubalik

What an incredible rookie season for Kubalik. The 24-year-old is likely going to be a finalist for the Calder Trophy after scoring 30 goals with 16 assists for 46 points. He made just $925,000 last season, and he’ll likely see a sizeable contract extension with a $5M AAV. He’s that good, folks.

Drake Caggiula

Caggiula doesn’t light up the box score, but he does a lot of the little things right. Last year, he scored nine goals with six assists for 15 points, but he also missed a significant portion early in the year due to a concussion. He recently turned 26 years old and made $1.5M last season. In the offseason, Caggiula will likely fetch a contract at nearly $3M AAV.

Dylan Strome

Strome is going to be an interesting case this offseason. The emergence of Kirby Dach makes Strome expendable in the near future, so the Blackhawks shouldn’t break the bank to retain him. Still, the 23-year-old scored 12 goals with 26 assists for 38 points while finding a home on the second line alongside Patrick Kane and Alex Nylander.

Slater Koekkoek

The Blackhawks have defensive prospects coming, so I would be shocked if Koekkoek is back next season. He filled in for Brent Seabrook, seeing a career-high 14 starts in February. He scored just one goal with nine assists for ten points in 42 games, so again, it would be strange if he’s brought back.

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Corey Crawford

What to do with Corey Crawford? The two-time Stanley Cup champion has battled back from concussion issues and had a rough October and December. However, with the flip of the calendar also flipped Crawford’s game, logging a 2.35 GAA to close out the shortened season. He made $6M last year, so if the Blackhawks can retain him for $3-to-$4M, that’s an easy decision to bring him back. If he wants more, I think the Blackhawks have to let him walk, as much as that hurts to say.

Malcolm Subban

Subban came over via the Robin Lehner trade from Las Vegas. He played in just one game with the Hawks, so we’ll be using his stats with the Golden Knights. In 20 appearances, including 19 starts, Subban recorded a .890 save percentage with a 3.18 GAA. With Collin Delia coming and the potential for the Blackhawks to draft a goalie this year, retaining Subban is not critical.

Where the Chicago Blackhawks save money this offseason?

Obviously, if the Blackhawks re-sign all free-agents, they’ll easily exceed the league’s salary cap restrictions. While I don’t expect everyone to be back, I do think Bowman will try to free up cap space this offseason, potentially buying out a couple of players.

As much as they need experienced defensemen right now, Olli Maatta is a prime buyout candidate this offseason. If the Blackhawks elect that route, they will save $3.4M in each of the next two years with a $2.7M cap hit spread equally over the next four years.

With the wealth of centers on the roster, Zack Smith makes a lot of sense to buyout as well. They’ll save $2.2M this year, at just a $1.1M cap hit in each of the next two years.

Other buyout candidates could potentially include Ryan Carpenter or David Kampf, but their salaries are small dents in the overall. The talent lost wouldn’t match the savings.

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