Chicago Bulls: Can Markkanen be better than Nowitzki?

Although it’s early, Lauri Markkanen’s play has gotten Chicago Bulls fans excited at the thought of what he could become.

People immediately began making comparisons to Dirk Nowitzki when the Minnesota Timberwolves drafted Lauri Markkanen number seven overall for the Chicago Bulls as part of the draft night deal that sent Jimmy Butler to the Timberwolves. Many of the similarities were obvious. Both players are 7 footers from Europe who came into the league billed as shooters, and Markkanen and Nowitzki (taken 9th overall in 1998) were both lottery picks.

Another similarity is that draft experts and fans criticized both picks. Revisionist history erased that narrative for Nowitzki, who currently ranks 6th on the NBA’s scoring list. However, at the time, many resoundingly questioned the Maverick’s decision to draft a 7 foot face-up shooter from Europe. Just as in 2017, Chicago Bulls fans were wondering whether their team made the right choice. There were plenty of fans who labeled the Bulls rookie a “bust” before he even stepped on the floor.

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Now that Markkanen is halfway through his rookie season, there is little room left on his bandwagon.  You would also be hard-pressed to find any more naysayers. They are now disguised in Lauri Markkanen jerseys and fill the United Center for home games. Markannen has brought a level of excitement and hope to the Chicago Bulls that has been lacking for a number of years. Therefore, it might not be too early to wonder whether he will end up having a better career than his German counterpart.

Statistical Comparison

Granted it is an extremely small sample, but Lauri Markkanen’s statistics are very comparable to Dirk Nowitzki’s rookie year. Through 47 games he is averaging 15 points and just under 8 rebounds per game. Nowitzki averaged 14.5 points and 9 rebounds per game. Both players averaged around 12 field goal attempts per game.

In his rookie season, Nowitzki shot a mere 20% from three-point range, making only 14 of 68 attempts.  From inside the arc, he connected on 45% on 268 attempts. Markkanen, on the other hand, is 109-299 from three-point range,  which is good for 36.5%, or a full 16 percentage points better than Nowitzki. Markkanen also has the edge from two-point range, shooting 49.0% on 304 attempts.

Again, the sample size is small for each player.  However, the numbers suggest that Markkanen is further along shooting-wise than Nowitzki was in his rookie season.  Even the advanced analytics give Markkanen a slight edge, as he has a 0.3 value over replacement player, while Nowitzki had a -0.2 in his first season.

Physical Comparison

As noted above, Markkanen and Nowitzki are similarly built.  Both players stand 7 feet tall and weigh in the 230-245 lb range. Both players have a similar skill set in that they are bigs who can stretch the floor and the ability to play out on the perimeter. However, Nowitzki’s game began to shine when he developed the ability to play with his back to the basket. Once able to do this, he became incredibly difficult to defend and created huge matchup problems.

However, it took some time for Nowitzki to develop that aspect of his game. Lauri Markkanen, on the other hand, has already started to flash his post-up potential this year. Most rookies are still trying to get a feel for the NBA game at this point in the season. Markkanen, however, is already developing other facets of his game.

This is fairly significant, as it suggests Markkanen is developing at a much faster rate than most rookies. The fact that he is already expanding his skill set this early should only accelerate his development into a complete player.

Another example of Markkanen’s maturity is his ability to work from the post even when his shot is not there. While most rookies would press in that situation, Markkanen takes what the defense gives him. When they collapse or take away his lane, he has no problem finding his open teammates.

Other Factors

An additional factor in Markkanen’s development that should not be discounted is his supporting cast. Outside of Steve Nash, who was in his second year, Dirk Nowitzki had very little around him on that 1998 team. Over the course of the next few years, the Dallas Mavericks added some verterans like Michael Finley, Christian Laettner, and Juwan Howard.

However, Markkanen has the opportunity to develop with a young corps of Kris Dunn and Zach Lavine. It is a tremendous advantage for him to develop chemistry with a group that should be playing together for a long time.

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Of course, it is way too early to make any real prediction as to whether Markkanen will have a better career than Dirk Nowitzki. However, it is absolutely the right time for Chicago Bulls fans to begin dreaming of that possibility.