Chicago Cubs rumors: What would a Michael Fulmer trade with the Tigers look like?
Recent Chicago Cubs rumors have the team checking the asking price of Detroit Tigers star pitcher Michael Fulmer. Fulmer would undoubtedly be a fantastic addition to the Cubs’ rotation, but at what cost?
In recent weeks, the hottest rumor surrounding the Chicago Cubs has involved Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander. On the surface, the Cubs trading for Verlander does make a lot of sense. They have a clear need for another starting pitcher, particularly one who can help them beyond this season.
Verlander is under contract through 2019 and he has obviously had a ton of past success. However, he is extremely expensive, 34 years old and has not pitched well this season. He could be a decent fit, but Verlander is far from a perfect fit.
Well, according to MLB insider Peter Gammons, the Cubs have been asking the Tigers about starting pitching, but Verlander is not their target.
"“The Cubs have called almost every team to see who might be available,” Gammons wrote. “They asked the Tigers about Michael Fulmer and/or Daniel Norris, but made it clear they had no interest in Justin Verlander, and as one Cub official said, “no one is going to pay $70M for him, even though he may still be a very good pitcher.”"
This is certainly an interesting bit from Gammons and it also fits a note from Ken Rosenthal who suggests that the Cubs are considering dealing from their talented pool of position players.
The 24 year old Norris is undoubtedly an interesting pitcher in his own right, but the most interesting name here is Michael Fulmer.
An extremely valuable arm
Fulmer is also only 24 years old and made his big league debut with the Tigers last season. Through 26 starts, Fulmer had an impressive 3.06 ERA and 3.76 FIP last season. He also posted a 20.4% strikeout rate and only a 6.5% walk rate, according to FanGraphs. Fulmer was fantastic as a rookie for the Tigers and took home American League Rookie of the Year honors.
Through 17 starts this season, Fulmer has continued to pitch extremely well. His 3.19 ERA is a bit higher, but his 3.26 FIP suggests that he has been even better than last season. His strikeout rate is down a bit (18%) but his 5.6% walk rate is incredibly encouraging. Simply put, he is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and every team in baseball would love to have him on their roster.
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The Tigers are likely in the middle of some sort of rebuild, so trading away Fulmer would not make much sense. However, the Chicago Cubs undoubtedly have the talent to make this work if they are willing to pay up.
We have been talking for years that eventually the Cubs were going to have to trade some of their position player talent for controllable young starting pitching. Year by year has gone by and that deal has never happened. However, with their obvious struggles in the rotation, there is a need for such a deal now, more than ever before. Rosenthal mentions that the Cubs are looking everywhere for pitching, but if Fulmer is their top target, what would he cost?
Trade options
First, rule out Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo in any discussions. They aren’t going anywhere. Willson Contreras is likely completely off limits as well. However, for a talent like Fulmer, anybody else could be an option.
In particular, guys like Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and top prospect Eloy Jimenez stand out as the players who could be traded for a guy like Fulmer. Struggles this season from Schwarber and Russell doesn’t help, but you can bet the Cubs will not be selling low on any of these players. Obviously, the Cubs would hate to trade any of those guys away, but in order to trade for quality, you have to give up quality.
If I had to guess, I imagine the Cubs would be willing to make any of those players a centerpiece of a deal for Fulmer. Add in a couple of strong prospects and the Cubs have put together a solid offer. However, I doubt that would be enough for the Tigers to bite.
Now, if the Cubs were willing to put in two of the players mentioned above, they might have a legitimate chance. I would think that an offer of let’s say; Happ, Jimenez, top pitching prospect Dylan Cease and blocked corner infielder Jeimer Candelario for Fulmer would at least be in the ballpark.
Should the Cubs pony up?
Personally, I think the Chicago Cubs should consider a move like that. I would not feel great about giving up that much. But as an elite young starting pitcher with many years of cost control, Fulmer fills the number one need on the Cubs’ roster. However, I seriously doubt that Theo Epstein and company would make that move.
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The Chicago Cubs have built their World Series championship team through cost-controlled position players. They clearly need pitching, but giving up that much good talent for one arm (no matter how good Fulmer is) would be a tough pill for them to swallow. When it comes down to it, I doubt the Cubs would be willing to part with any more than one of the players mentioned above. The Tigers will likely demand two of them and they won’t come to a deal.
But you never know and it is still a fun conversation to have. Just the idea that the Cubs are considering dealing from their strength of young position player talent should make this an interesting trade deadline for the organization.