The Chicago Cubs making a deal for Justin Verlander makes sense, but as an aging pitcher with an expensive contract, the Detroit Tigers need to be realistic about the return.
In recent days, the rumor mill has connected the Chicago Cubs to Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander and catcher Alex Avila. After moving on from Miguel Montero, Avila is an obvious fit for the Cubs. However, the case for Verlander is much more complicated and that is what we are going to focus on right now.
Verlander is one of the best pitchers of this era of baseball. He is a six-time All-Star selection and won the MVP and Cy Young for the Tigers back in 2011. He has certainly had some dominant years and still has some upside as a top of the rotation pitcher, but Verlander’s value on the trade market is tricky.
Hefty price tag
The Tigers are in an obvious rebuilding situation and would love to part ways with a big-time contract like Verlander’s. The big right-hander is currently pitching at 34-years-old and has at least two and a half years left on his contract. According to Spotrac, Verlander is under contract, through the 2019 season at a whopping $28 million per year. He also has a vested option for the 2020 season at $22 million.
Money is not much of an issue for the Cubs, but irresponsible spending could cut this period of expected long-term success short. There was a time where Verlander was worth that kind of money, but suggesting that he is anything other than overpaid right now would be foolish.
Lack of 2017 success
Verlander had a strong 2016 season for the Tigers, posting a 3.04 ERA in 34 starts. However, he has been much worse this season, putting together a 4.94 ERA (4.37 FIP) in 17 starts.
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The Tigers’ right-hander has an extremely elevated walk rate this season (10.8% compared to 6.3% last season) and his strikeouts are also way down (21.1% strikeout rate compared to 28.1% in 2016). Verlander could easily turn his season around and get right back on top, but those increased walks and decreased strikeouts are incredibly concerning.
I think what Theo Epstein and company are trying to do here is buy low. They clearly need help in the rotation, not only for 2017 but in the years after. Verlander has had a tough start to the season, but he has a long track record of success. The contract is risky but the Cubs see this as an opportunity to buy low on a potential top of that rotation starter.
What’s the asking price?
That being said, ESPN MLB Insider Buster Olney recently reported that the Tigers are not interested in selling low on Verlander.
Teams asking about Justin Verlander; perception is DET looking for big,big,big return w/out salary offset. Owed $70m for rest of '17,'18.'19
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 4, 2017
If this is the case, the Cubs should be out of any trade talks involving Verlander. The team trading for the former superstar is taking on the risk because of his advanced age and bloated contract. Giving up a ton of assets on top of that would be foolish.
The Tigers can forget about top prospect Eloy Jimenez, MLB talent like Javier Baez, Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber and probably even top pitching prospect Dylan Cease. If the Tigers insist on that kind of ridiculous package, the Cubs should just walk away. There is pitching to be had in other places.
But maybe the Tigers will be reasonable?
That being said, on Thursday, MLB Insider Jon Heyman of Fanrag Sports suggested a logical trade between the two sides.
"Justin Verlander, SP, and $20 million from the Tigers to the Cubs for Thomas Hatch, RHP prospect, Jose Paulino, LHP prospect, and Jose Rosario, RHP prospect.“These three pitching prospects rank in the top 20 for the Cubs, and while this may seem like less than a haul (it is that), with Verlander up and down this year the Tigers probably can’t expect to get top of the line guys,” Heyman wrote.“Hatch was a third rounder and Rosario throws close to 100 mph, and they’d help replenish the Tigers’ system. Verlander could revert to 2016 Cy Young form energized in Chicago, but as one rival pointed out, “There are a lot of innings on that arm.” So it’d be a gamble for the Cubs – though we’d always bet on Verlander.”"
If the Tigers are reasonable and would consider a package like this, the Cubs should be in on Verlander. They would be giving up some serious pitching prospect talent, but it is not the kind of deal that would cripple the team going forward. They would also get some money to help pay for Verlander’s contract.
I am sure Tigers’ fans would be upset with this kind of haul, but I honestly think they need to reset their expectations. Verlander undoubtedly still has some upside, but he has not been good this season and his contract is not pretty. Plus, at 34-years-old, health could become a major concern at any point.
Next: Cubs' trade deadline wishlist
It is always difficult to trade a team icon. However, if the Tigers are serious about their rebuild, moving Verlander makes the most sense. If they can be reasonable about a trade package, the Cubs are probably the favorites. However, if they insist on a huge package like Olney suggests, do not expect Epstein and company to be seriously involved.
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