Why Caleb WIlliams and the Bears Will Shock Everyone Against the Lions in Week 16

The Chicago Bears are on an eight-game losing streak. Caleb Williams has hit another rough patch with back-to-back games under 200 yards. The team's playoff hopes are gone, and many fans are simply hoping to see the Bears' first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft get a little more valuable as everything winds down.

The NFL world at large isn't taking the Bears seriously. And that's especially true in Week 16 with a matchup against the Detroit Lions. Even though Chicago kept it close on Thanksgiving (let's not talk about the finish of that game), people clearly believe it was a fluke. On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Bears are 6.5-point underdogs even though they're playing at home (which is usually worth a couple of points on a spread). For those less familiar with betting, Vegas is essentially implying the Bears will lose by about a touchdown, and that they only have a 27% chance of winning this game.

I'm not here to throw out a hot take like "the Bears are definitely going to win this game" — you and I would both know that would be exaggerating just to prove a point. But I will tell you that the Bears, and Caleb Williams in particular, are going to surprise a lot of people and that they do have a genuine shot at pulling off an upset here. Let's take a closer look at why.

Bears vs. Lions Prediction: A Much Closer Matchup Than People Realize

The Lions are absolutely rolling, and even with David Montgomery, their offense is as dangerous as it gets. Their style of defense also makes it very hard to keep up with that offense, as they have one of the NFL's best pass rushes.

Williams did more than hold his own against Detroit the first time they met, however, throwing for 256 yards with 3 touchdowns and no picks. His 8.1 adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A) in that game made for his third best mark of the season. Again, this is being viewed as a fluke.

Accordingly, even though Williams should be expected to throw a lot as an underdog, the betting markets have an over/under for his passing total set at just 214.5 total yards — well below the 230.4 per game he's averaged across his last five.

But there's something about the way Williams matches up with that Lions defense that seems to be mistakenly ignored in coming up with these predictions that the Lions will completely shut him down. That first performance was not a fluke.

One of those major Lions' strengths, their pass rush, typically forces opposing quarterbacks off their game and makes them play well below the level we're used to seeing. But Williams' ability to handle pressure is not only good for a rookie — it's above average for any quarterback.

Williams' PFF passing grade is 18.3 points lower when facing pressure than when he's not this season. That may seem like a big drop, but it's actually the sixth lowest decrease among the 34 QBs who have at least 200 dropbacks this season.

You don't need to just believe the grades, either. He ranks 24th in the group in passer rating in a clean pocket, but that jumps to 14th in the group when facing pressure.

This isn't to say he's elite throwing against pressure in a vacuum (his grade is still below average in that group, and 14th out of 34 is pretty average), but rather highlights that pressure doesn't change his effectiveness the way it does for most quarterbacks.

So while typically you'd expect a quarterback to be off their game against Detroit's pass rush, Williams should still be able to produce more or less at his usual level. And frankly, that's what we saw on Thanksgiving. "His usual level" is a rollercoaster at times, but he certainly has the upside to be able to keep up with top offenses when he's on.

Like I said earlier, am I picking the Bears to win straight up? No. But when you look at things like being a 6.5-point underdog at home and Williams getting a low passing yard prop bet line? Well, that highlights that the Bears are not getting nearly enough credit.

If you're a gambler, that makes those betting lines mighty interesting as Sunday approaches. And if you're not, it's still nice to know that you can go into Sunday hoping to watch a genuinely competitive and hard-fought game, not the blowout that everyone seems to believe this is sure to be.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.