Now that the NFL draft is behind us, it is a good time to set expectations for the rookie draft class. While the rookie season does not define the player's success, it is a good baseline for what to expect. What are realistic expectations for Dillon Thieneman in his rookie year?
What should Chicago Bears fans expect from Dillon Thieneman in his rookie season?
One interesting note when looking through past comparisons is that the late part of round 1 is not the best time to draft a safety. Typically, the elite safeties went off of the board, and safety is a position where gems are often found late, so after the top picks, it is usually best to wait.Â
Since 2012, there have been 11 safeties drafted between picks 20 and 32. Lewis Cine, Jonathan Abram, Terrell Edmunds, and Matt Elam did not turn out. Deone Bucannon essentially moved to a box linebacker role.Â
Some competent starters include Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Jabrill Peppers, Darnell Savage, and Jimmie Ward, although none are long-time starters for one team or game changers. Lastly, there is Malaki Starks, who was just a rookie but looks like a solid starter, and Harrison Smith, who had many great seasons as one of the better safeties in the NFL.Â
Discounting Starks there, 10% turned out to be all-time greats with their team, 40% turned into capable starters, amd 50% either were not hits or changed position entirely.Â
While three of these 11 safeties missed time in their rookie season due to injury, the other eight recorded at least 55 solo tackles. All of the other eight started at least nine games as well.Â
The top three in tackles were Smith, Clinton-Dix, and Starks, and that might end up being the best three of this entire list. All three had at least 84 tackles, with Smith posting 104. So, if the Bears expect him to maintain a trajectory of a solid safety drafted in this range, they should be looking for at least 84 tackles, but fans should not think 100 is expecting too much.Â
The good news is that Thieneman should be able to hit this mark. There is almost nothing stopping him from starting in week one, other than injury. Beyond that, Coby Bryant mostly plays the free safety role, so Thieneman will be asked to clean up a lot of tackles. A 100-tackle rookie season is doable.
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