The Chicago White Sox lost two of three to the Cleveland Guardians this week, finally giving up first place in the American League Central. But they are only down by half a game to Cleveland and own the tiebreaker. And the wild card remains a likely landing spot if the Sox don't win the division.
I think the Sox will be in the playoffs one way or another, and I certainly wish for it. They don't have to perform a miracle to get there. But after arguing the case as to why the Sox will make the playoffs, I've sought some journalistic balance by arguing why they won't. If you've been watching the games recently, very little of this will surprise you.
Reasons Why the White Sox Could Miss The Playoffs
There are just a few reasons the Sox could be sitting home instead of making the postseason. The good news for Sox fans is that the team has often overcome these problems. The bad news is that these issues have reared their head in tandem at the worst time. Three of the problems -- lack of clutch hitting, walks allowed, and poor defense -- all manifested in the final loss to Cleveland.
Here we go.
Reason number one: Defense. The Sox have not be clean on defense. They occasionally make errors that are infuriating. We saw it in game three against Cleveland when normally reliable Chase Meidroth dropped the ball on a tag play because he didn't secure the ball in his glove. That led to two runs. Shortstop Colson Montgomery had a similar key error against St. Louis that led to a loss. So on and so forth. The good news is that sometimes the pitching has worked around this and/or the offense has outslugged the team's errors, but if the Sox want to make the postseason -- and last long in October should they get there -- they'll need to clean this up.
Reason number two: Walks allowed. The bullpen has been generally excellent. The starting pitching has been more inconsistent -- it was a bugaboo for several weeks in August and early September. But both have given up walks at inopportune times. A walk to Patrick Bailey on Tuesday with one on and one out was trouble -- it allowed Bailey to be the winning run. If the Sox get Bailey out, Rocchio might not even bat. Worst case, the Sox would have had to worry about the tying run from a lead-off single by Nathaniel Lowe (he was pinch ran for). Walks also set up the go-ahead homer by Petey Halpin in the 6-3 loss Wednesday. Those occurred with two outs. It's one thing to force batters to reach by getting a hit. Allowing teams free passes to first base and extra outs due to errors are killers, and the Sox need to improve in both areas.
Reason number three: Lack of clutch hitting, especially with runners in scoring position. The biggest reason the Sox went 5-10 in the first 15 games of September, including a 1-5 record against forgettable Pittsburgh and St. Louis teams, is that the team couldn't get runners home. Earlier in the year, the Sox were slugging by hitting the ball out of the park, sometimes with men on base. But in September, the Sox would get traffic and fail to get those runners home. Whether it was tightness from the pressure of the playoff race leading to the team pressing, or whether hitters were swinging for the fences when singles would suffice, the Sox have had brutal numbers with RISP. If the Sox get a few more big hits with two on or the bases loaded, that 5-10 record would've been closer to 10-5.
Reason number four: Fatigue. The Sox are a young team full of players who have not played a full 162 major league games, let alone in a pennant race. Guys might be out of gas. At least perhaps they have time to recover a little and push through.
Reason number five: The big boppers are slumping. This ties into reason number three. But if Colson Montgomery and Munetaka Murakami don't start hitting better over the final 10 games, that will be a problem. Conversely, if even one gets going, the Sox could rebound from the early September swoon.
Reason number six: Playoff pressure. Few players on this team have faced it before. So the team might not understand the necessary mindset for September playoff-race baseball.
Reason number seven: Starting pitching struggles. This is the final reason. The starting pitching was frightening at times during August and early September. The good news is that Davis Martin and Sean Burke seem to have bounced back, and Luis Castillo can move to the bullpen. The use of openers has helped, too. In fact, if the Sox do keep their postseason place, the starting pitching's recent semi-rebound might be why.
I think the Sox will make the playoffs. I hope they do. But if they don't -- or even if they sneak in as the sixth-seed instead of the two seed, these will be the reasons why.
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