Cubs' Trade Deadline Moves Raise Questions About Direction

I suppose – unlike most of the double speak we must interpret from team officials – it was better to take Cubs president Jed Hoyer at his word.

"Where we are right now, I would have to say that moves only for 2024 -- unless things change over the next week -- we probably won't do a lot of moves that only help us for this year," Hoyer said prior to a July 22nd game against Milwaukee. "If moves help us for 2025 and beyond I think we're exceptionally well positioned."

Well, sitting here exactly one week, three wins, and four losses later, time is up. Loose the lifeboats. Don’t be caught on the sinking ship. Unless?

Honestly, what came as the biggest surprise from the Cubs acquiring Pearson or Paredes – a reclamation project and positional upgrade, respectively – is how literal Hoyer’s message turned out to be. He grabbed one talent who could elevate the 2025 squad, and one who should.

Despite what reads as future-conscious fence-riding, some fans undoubtedly still wish Chicago had taken a sharper turn towards buying or selling. Hoyer & Co. seem committed to threading that needle. It’s all they can do after an overall encouraging 2023 (albeit blighted by a disastrous final week) raised expectations for this season. Despite rosier projections, the Cubs are 51-57 and 134-136 since the beginning of ’23.

Other than trying to get their logo pictured next to “middling” in the ‘ol Meriam-Webster, it would require an offensive surge this team doesn’t have left. In April, the “we’re so back” Cubs scored the second most runs in the majors. Per Statmuse, they are since 28th, with an OPS only better than the (long sigh) White Sox.

If something’s broke, fix it. Paredes could never surpass Christopher Morel’s Smiles Above Replacement (SARS?) but his .792 OPS and multiple years of production bode well. He can also, notably, actually play 3rd base. He’s not Brooks Robinson, but 1 Out Above Average bodes better than Morel’s -12. They’re both 25, and Paredes, signed through 2027, is the first stable All-Star talent player at the hot corner since Kris Bryant. Through Tampa Bay’s arcane methods, Morel will naturally hit 45 homers next season, but ce la vie.

Pearson is less scrutable – an upside play for a flamethrowing former first-rounder is an evergreen idea. His Baseball Savant page reads better than a 5.66 ERA in 41.1 innings. A 4.24 Expected ERA with solid exit velocity and strikeout numbers also fits into Hoyer’s nebulous master plan if he figures things out. And stops hitting people in the head.

“We decided to acquire what we think is a really talented arm and he’s still kind of figuring out his way in the big leagues and trying to figure out his path to being really good,” manager Craig Counsell said, per MLB.com. “But we think that all the ingredients are there, and that we’re getting a guy who’s just getting better. And that’s exciting.”

Having expressed a desire to return to starting, he could continue building on the club’s biggest mounting strength. Between Pearson and Paredes, the best “prospect” sent out was probably Morel. He will be missed. His .199 average will not. Chicago stabilized a position of need and sent out mid-to-low 20s ranked prospects for a fixer-upper. The farm system remains strong.

Hoyer seems above-board – for now. If no other deal is made, the team will be better, likely this year and next. It’s just worth wondering if these are half-measures that will hurt down the line. It seems likely that certain players are more valuable as trade chips today than as 2025 Chicago Cubs. Morel learned that the hard way.

“It's not like a ‘This’ or ‘That,’” Counsell said. “I think there's a big misconception about trade deadlines that they're ‘This’ or ‘That.’ I think that's a mistake. I think it's an easier story to write.”

He hit the nail on the head! We can argue about which binary action would be preferable. “To sell or not to sell.” What’s wisest is likely swapping out one or two more vets (can I offer you a lightly used Neris?) for more youth. Most consternation is born from the thunderous disappointment this season has been for a club that should’ve been in the postseason the year prior.

2024 is a wash. Wild card dreams are siren songs for irrational front offices, Chicago can at least right the ship for next year. For now, Paredes and Pearson augment a team that’s faced far too many inflection points in the last year.

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