Best Bears Bets for Week 4: Which Caleb Williams Will Show Up?

Last week, the Bears had a really awful game, and our bets followed suit. Our record on bets now stands at 7-9. Here is the recap for last week.

The Bears were 1.5-point underdogs, so we took the moneyline win and the Bears lost in extremely painful fashion.

We thought QB Caleb Williams would improve and throw for over 200 yards, but we didn't see 363 yards coming so our under-on-yards bet did not pan out.

Going against the worst run defense in the league, we took RB D'Andre Swift for the yards, and he wound up with a miserable 20 yards.

We were pretty sure TE Cole Kmet and Swift would do 25 yards receiving and they brought in 97 and 22 yards respectively. Swift couldn't get just 3 more yards? Or catch one more of his four targets (he caught two)? At least Kmet came through for us.

We are not daunted, though. Though the loss was difficult, there are things to get excited about. The Bears aren't giving up and neither are we.

All odds are from Draft Kings Sportsbook.

Betting the Game

Currently, the Bears are 3-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams are 1-2, so the Bears are getting the home-field advantage. Not much has changed for the Bears since Week 3. Per NFL.com, they are second to last in rushing yards and yards per carry. The Bears' defense is seventh in passing yards, tied for third in passing touchdowns, and tied for third in interceptions. It is an almost-bottom offense and an almost-top defense.

What has changed is that the passing game is picking up. Though much has been written about Williams' turnovers, he did throw two touchdowns and the fourth most yards in a game by any quarterback in a game this season. Williams is now middle of the pack in passing yards and has the third most attempts in the league.

Meanwhile, the Rams defense is giving up the seventh most passing yards in the league and the second most passing touchdowns. They are also giving up the third most rushing yards in the NFL, but it isn't clear if the Bears can exploit that weakness.

On offense, the Rams are third to worst in rushing yards (just one behind the Bears) and Matthew Stafford can always do some damage but he'll be without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua this week. Very bad news for the Rams going against the Bears' great defense.

Pick: Bears win by more than 3 at -105.

Betting the Quarterback

Which Caleb Williams will show up this week? I think he gets even better this week. He may not throw for 363 yards again, but he could go over 400 yards. Or he could go under 200 yards. I think he is going to be forced to throw the ball at least 40 times again and I think we are going to see decent yardage and an offense that is going to run through him. Draft Kings is thinking the same thing because they aren't paying out anything positive until 250 yards (and they are paying big, +185, which might not be a terrible bet.

I think he'll also fix the interception and turnover issue this week. My guess is one interception.

The over/under on William's yardage is 221.5, actually more than Matthew Stafford's. DraftKings is also paying out +135 on two touchdowns. I am highly motivated to try that bet. But touchdowns are fickle things.

Pick: Williams throws at least 40 times. Take the over yardage at 221.5 for -115.

Betting the Running Backs

At this point, putting money on the Bears running game is a fool's errand. Until the line can consistently create holes, this is just not going to work. We know RB Khalil Herbert can pound the inside and we know Swift can be a force as well. We just have to see it happen. Giving Roschon Johnson more touches will help everyone out by mixing things up. He was mildly successful last week with 3.75 yards a carry on 8 attempts.

Pick: Don't bet the Bears running backs.

Betting the Receivers

One thing Williams is doing a phenomenal job of is spreading the ball around to multiple receivers. This habit typically means that he is finding the open man and not just forcing it to his main receiver or first option. Six receivers had two or more receptions with Kmet leading the team with 10, DJ Moore had eight, and I love that Johnson had four. I still think Swift should have more receptions, but I can't complain.

Rome Odunze had a huge game with six receptions, 112 yards, and a touchdown. This guy is as advertised. But Keenan Allen comes back this week, so there will be even more mouths to feed. It will be interesting to see what Odunze does with Allen in the mix.

Pick: One thing you can count on is DJ Moore will get his. Take the over at 4.5 receptions at -135.