Chicago Bears wide receiver Luther Burden is expected to be a fantasy football breakout. Most analysts are projecting more targets, meaning more catches and yards. However, that should also equal more touchdowns. Mike Clay of ESPN noted that the Bears have a lot of touchdown opportunities that are open, and therefore, Burden could see a strong increase in touchdowns.
Luther Burden could triple his touchdown production in his second NFL season with the Chicago Bears
Burden caught two touchdown passes in 2025. However, Clay is projecting Burden for six touchdowns in 2026. Clay notes that losing D.J. Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus could immediately lead to more touchdowns for the second-year breakout.
"Burden handled only one end zone target and his 1.2 xTD ranked 115th among receivers during the regular season. DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus combined for nine TDs, 15 end zone targets and an 8.6 xTD last season -- and both are no longer with the team, so there's certainly growth opportunity here"Mike Clay
So, based on this analysis, the Bears were not using Burden anywhere near the goal line. He was not targeted in that area, and based on his 1.2 expected touchdown score, his two-touchdown season was actually outperforming his expectations.
The Bears are losing nine touchdowns, and with an 8.6 expected touchdown rate, they need to replace all of them. Those opportunities have to go somewhere, and Burden is one of the most logical candidates. He already earned a larger role late last season, and another jump in playing time would naturally lead to more red-zone chances. It would make sense that a good portion of these high-leverage targets go to Burden. Considering Burden is solid with the ball in his hands and produced more touchdowns than expected, he does not need all of the 8.6 opportunities to go his way to hit six touchdowns or more.
So, it is easy to see six being a conservative number, even if he is tripling his touchdown production from a year ago.
Burden could be used in a variety of ways to score touchdowns, too. Because he is good with the ball in his hands, the team could get him open on jet sweeps, end arounds, and screens near the goal line. It would put Burden in spots where he just has to make one person miss to find the end zone.
Beyond that, being on the field more will mean more chances for the explosive play to end up in the end zone. Burden is a must-buy in fantasy football, and it is not just because of the volume. The odds of him increasing his touchdown production are very high, and fantasy players do not want to miss that.
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