Go to NFL.com and look at any of the eight or nine mock drafts, and you will see that the Chicago Bears are predicted to pick an offensive lineman with their 10th overall pick. With the Chiefs franchise tagging Trey Smith, that No. 10 selection becomes all that more important.
Where these mock drafts diverge is which players will be available there and who the Bears will choose. Most analysts, like Bucky Brooks, have New England picking the consensus best lineman in the draft, Will Campbell from LSU, leaving the Bears with Texas' Kelvin Banks. Some analysts think that Missouri's Armand Membou is the better player, however. There are also others who think that New England may not go with an offensive lineman, allowing the Bears to grab Campbell.
Did the Combine Change Draft Assumptions?
During the media session on Saturday, we learned several things. First, Ohio State's Josh Simmons, whose season ended with injury in October, said that he'll be ready for his pro day in late April. Simmons is a wild card right now on how he will be evaluated due to that injury.
More interestingly, Campbell, Banks, and Membou discussed that teams have asked them about moving to guard from tackle in the NFL. Of course, all players were positive about helping out their team, but tackle is typically where the money and the high draft pick originate.
Teams have concerns about Campbell's arm length and wingspan and Membou's height (6'3 3/4" instead of 6'4"). Banks, who has never played guard, said that about a third of the teams he has talked to have asked him about making the switch inside.
But what actually happened on the field is, of course, more important. Analysts seemed to agree on the outcome of the Combine activities.
Will Campbell Has a Problem with His Arms
Will Campbell's wingspan came out at 77 3/8" which, per Sports Illustrated, is the shortest of his draft class, the shortest for a tackle prospect since 2011, and shorter than NFL teams like to see in a tackle. Though Campbell had a great day of drills on the field and showed some fantastic athleticism (4.98 40, 9' 5" vertical), Brandon Olsen at SI thought the arm length issue has to impact his draft selection.
Chris Trapasso at CBS Sports graded him a B+ on the day just because of the wingspan. Chad Reuter at NFL.com went even further to say his draft stock is down. He says the minimum arm length for a tackle is 33 inches, and Campbell misses that by 3/8 of an inch. Zach Martin, who just finished an illustrious career, had a similar wingspan and was drafted in the middle of the first round before being moved to guard. Reuter predicted that 'It’s still possible a team drafting in the top 10 will pick him, but it seems more likely now that he will still be waiting to hear his name called once the picks reach the teens on April 24."
Campbell was ready to defend his arms at media day: "You can go look at my tape. There's not one play on there that when I get beat, you say, 'That's because he has shorter arms.'"
I don't know if he can grow 3/8" by Draft Day.
Armand Membou Steals the Show
Analysts were also in total agreement that Membou won the day. Membou ran a 4.91 forty, jumped 34 inches in the air, and finished with an astounding 9'7" broad jump. For a guy that officially measured at 6'4 1/4" and 332 pounds, Trapasso awarded him an A+ on the day.
Reuter felt the performance earned him a big increase in his draft stock. Reuter went so far as to say that Membou has leapfrogged the crowd and "he has a chance to be the first offensive linemen drafted this year."
Originally, NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah ranked Membou the 18th overall best prospect, behind Campbell at eight (Banks is 24, though Jeremiah has Banks being picked before Membou in his mock draft). We'll see on draft day if the NFL teams agree with him.
Kelvin Banks Did OK
Banks did not make a splash at the Combine, but he didn't do anything to hurt himself either. He ran a 5.16 40, jumped at 32" vertical, and a 8' 8" broad. Pretty much average at everything.
Trepasso gave him a B for his effort, saying, "Banks didn't hurt his stock. He didn't significantly help it, either."
Bears' Choice
What is Ryan Poles going to make of these performances by the offensive linemen? We haven't seen an interview with him yet, but those first three picks of the draft are going to be highly important and impactful for the Bears. Will he put much stock in the Combine, or will he focus on the tape and the success at the college level for these players?
Though these are the top three prospects, the showing on Sunday identified that the O-line class is pretty deep. At guard and tackle, there could be plenty of talent to trade down lower in the first round or use those second-round picks.
North Dakota State's Grey Zabel, Arizona's Jonah Savaiinaea, and Georgia's Tate Ratledge could all be day one starters in the NFL.
The Bears have also not given up on free agency. There are several good offensive linemen in free agency, including Kevin Zeitler, Drew Dalman, Will Fries, Ronnie Stanley, and Aaron Banks. If Poles is aggressive on the offensive line in free agency, will he pivot to one of the leading edge rushers in the draft? The edge is also very deep in this draft class.
It fees like the Bears will grab one of the top three offensive linemen with the number 10 pick as well as continue to be aggressive in free agency for the offensive and defensive line. It will, of course, matter what happens in those first nine picks of the draft to know who they will select, but it feels like it will be Campbell or Membou.
In the end, it doesn't matter who Poles picks, as long as he is right. That is the job.