The Chicago Cubs have a glaring problem as they head into the final month of the regular season. That problem, to the surprise of absolutely nobody, is pitching, specifically the starting rotation. Chicago's offense has been far and away the best in all of MLB, as the offense has accumulated 31.6 WAR, which is over 8 WAR more than the Dodgers who have the 2nd most offensive WAR. Despite this, the Cubs are only 5th in total WAR due to their pitching WAR being the 2nd lowest in all of MLB. That is simply not good enough for a team with as high of playoff expectations as the Chicago Cubs.
While hope can be held out for the Cubs stealing the division lead from the Milwaukee Brewers, it's safe to assume at this point that the most likely outcome is a wild card series hosted at Wrigley. A team that Chicago could match up against in that series is the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies, while having some offensive woes, have a 1-2-3 pitching punch that can shut anyone down in Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo. The Cubs may not have one guy of as high of caliber.
Who can be trusted to make playoff starts?
Looking ahead, Chicago will have about 8 options to choose from to be their 3 wild card game starters, those being: Javier Assad, Matthew Boyd, Clay Holmes, Shota Imanaga, Kevin Gausman, David Peterson, Ben Brown, and Edward Cabrera. Out of this group, Ben Brown has performed the best, but it's unclear how soon he will return from his neck injury. Cabrera is dealing with his own injuries, and he hasn't pitched the best even when healthy. Between the remaining 5 guys, Clay Holmes currently feels like Chicago's game 1 starter. He's produced 2 extremely quality starts since his Cubs debut, a game that shouldn't hold much weight since it was his first off of the IL.
Assuming Holmes can continue to pitch at a high level, Chicago's other trade deadline acquisition, Kevin Gausman, is likely the frontrunner to start the 2nd wild card game. While he hasn't been perfect by any means, his most recent start is an indicator of good things to come, and he will almost certainly be at the front of the rotation in the playoffs especially given his experience.
Javier Assad has been great as of late and has become somewhat of a fan favorite as well, with some even believing he should be a playoff starter. While you can't rule it out, Assad's best role for a wild card series would be similar to the role of last year's Colin Rea. He shouldn't start the game, as he isn't used to going for more than 4-5 innings, but he should be the first guy on standby if things get ugly early.
As of right now, the Cubs 3rd playoff starter should be, as crazy as this may have sounded a few weeks ago, David Peterson. Peterson has consistently shown the ability to limit the long ball, something that both Boyd and Imanaga have immensely struggled with. Neither Boyd or Imanaga can be trusted to start a playoff game with the amount of home runs they are giving up. While having Peterson start a playoff game is certainly a gamble, it's one Chicago may have to take if they wish to make a deep run in October.
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