The Cubs spent Monday night launching baseballs into every corner of the Wrigley Field bleachers. Roughly 24 hours later, their bullpen turned a three-run lead into another loss.
If that sounds familiar, it should.
Another Cubs lead disappears
Chicago had Milwaukee in a 3-0 hole Tuesday after three doubles in the fourth inning. Matthew Boyd was not dominant, but he kept the Brewers scoreless until the sixth and departed with the Cubs still ahead.
Then Daniel Palencia entered.
What followed was a balk, an RBI double and a Christian Yelich home run. Palencia faced three batters and retired none of them. A 3-1 game became 5-3 before Counsell could reach for someone else.
The Cubs answered with a run, briefly cutting the deficit to one. Their relievers promptly returned it, plus three more. Ryan Zeferjahn, Caleb Thielbar and Tyler Ferguson all allowed Milwaukee to score before the night was over.
Final score: Brewers 9, Cubs 4.
It was the 26th game Chicago has lost after leading. The bullpen has also blown 23 save opportunities, converting just 56% of its chances. There are statistics that require a calculator and a FanGraphs subscription to explain. This is not one of them. The Cubs keep getting ahead, and far too often, they do not stay there.
The lineup has covered the damage
Perhaps this problem would have drawn more attention if Chicago’s offense were merely decent.
It is anything but that.
The Cubs hit a franchise-record nine home runs in Monday’s 17-3 win over Milwaukee. Alex Bregman supplied three. Six other players joined the fun as Chicago finished August with 62 homers, the highest monthly total ever produced by a National League club.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has played himself into the MVP discussion. Bregman remains capable of wrecking a game by himself. The rest of the lineup provides few comfortable places for opposing pitchers to hide.
All of that thunder has allowed Chicago to survive nights that would sink a less dangerous team. October will not be nearly as forgiving.
A postseason opponent is unlikely to leave pitches over the plate all evening. The Cubs will eventually carry a 3-2 lead into the seventh inning, and nobody will care how many home runs they hit in August.
Who gets the final nine outs?
Counsell still does not have a convincing answer.
October will expose the Cubs quickly
Milwaukee now owns an eight-game lead in the National League Central, leaving the Cubs on course for the wild-card round. One bad relief appearance in a best-of-three series can send a team home before the postseason merchandise reaches every store.
Chicago can shorten its bullpen and ask its starters for more. Counsell can ride the hot hand, assuming one appears. None of those options erase what has happened repeatedly for five months.
The Cubs have the lineup to make a serious run. They also have a bullpen capable of ending one before it gets started.
Their October opponent may not need to beat them. It might only need to wait.
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