Carson Kelly has done everything except sign the goodbye letter. He declined his end of the $7.5 million mutual option, as expected, took his $1.5 million buyout, and posted a message to Cubs fans that reads like a farewell. The Cubs should make sure that it isn't.
The case for the Cubs to keep Kelly starts with one question: who catches if not Kelly? Miguel Amaya, Kelly's backup, is a useful second catcher. He hit .237 with a .717 OPS in 83 games, and is under team control for three more years. Injuries nearly wiped out his entire 2025 season, and the Cubs have viewed him as a backup for years. This is why it's unlikely that Amaya will be handed the starting job.
The heir apparent still needs time
The future is bright, but it's not here yet. Owen Ayers, a 25-year-old switch-hitting prospect hit .289 with 25 home runs across three levels of the minors in 2026 and climbed to No. 2 on MLB Pipeline's list of Cubs prospects.
He has a genuine cannon for an arm, but his receiving is still a work in progress, and his bat cooled off quite a bit in Triple-A, and he's not made it to the show yet. Moises Ballesteros was also an option here, but he was traded to the Angels at the deadline last season.
As such, there's no true successor in place for Kelly.
The market offers no rescue, either. With the Cubs in need to build their rotation from the ground up this offseason, signing Kelly to a deal now locks up the catchers for the foreseeable future, and creates a scenario where he can be the anchor for a budding rotation.
Spotrac.com puts Kelly's estimated value at a flat $15 million per year, and projects his next deal at around the $30 million mark for two years. That's a small price to pay in comparison to the spending the Cubs will need to do across the rest of the roster.
Two years at a raise over the option he turned down keeps Kelly in place while Ayers develops, and the deal ends right when the kid should be ready. Three years for a catcher who turns 33 next summer is where the Cubs should draw the line.
But if it's anything short of that, the Cubs should make the easy call and pay the man.
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