Frank Nazar has scored three goals in seven games. That's a pretty decent start for the 22-year-old, especially on a Chicago Blackhawks team that still has trouble putting the puck in the net.
So why are we talking about his $46.13 million contract already?
Look at what happened Saturday against Dallas.
The Blackhawks were shut out 4-0, managed only 19 shots and failed to score on four power plays. Spencer Knight could have stood on his head all night, and it wouldn't have made much difference.
Chicago wasn't scoring.
Nazar isn't responsible for all of that. Not even close. But the Blackhawks gave him a seven-year contract because they believe he can become the kind of player who helps prevent nights like this.
And right now, they could use another one of those players.
Frank Nazar has a lot riding on his new contract
Three goals and an assist through seven games isn't disappointing. If anything, Nazar has given Chicago reason to feel pretty good about its investment.
But there's a reason teams usually hesitate before handing out contracts of this size to players who haven't played two full NHL seasons.
You don't know exactly what you're getting.
Nazar could become a 30-goal scorer. He has the skating ability, hands and offensive instincts to make that possible. Or he could settle into being a solid second-line forward who occasionally puts together a terrific stretch.
Those are two very different outcomes for a player making more than $6.5 million annually.
Kyle Davidson is betting on the first one.
And there's nothing wrong with that. Chicago isn't exactly in a position to wait until every young player has three or four years of NHL experience before making financial decisions.
Still, the contract changes the conversation around Nazar.
A year ago, four points in seven games would have been viewed as another encouraging sign. Now people are going to look at those numbers and wonder whether he's becoming the player Chicago paid for.
That's the reality of signing a major extension.
The Blackhawks can't keep relying on Connor Bedard
Dallas provided a pretty good example of what happens when Chicago can't generate offense from different parts of its lineup.
Nineteen shots over 60 minutes. That's barely one every three minutes.
It's difficult to imagine many NHL teams winning consistently with that kind of production.
Bedard is obviously going to draw the most attention from opposing defenses. He's Chicago's best offensive player, and teams aren't going to give him much room if they can help it.
Somebody has to take advantage.
That's one reason Nazar's development is so important. Chicago needs a forward who can create his own chances instead of waiting for Bedard to open things up.
Nazar has shown he can do it. The next question is how often.
And that's where the Blackhawks are still waiting for an answer.
Chicago needs its $46 million bet to pay off
It's October. Nobody should be calling Nazar's contract a mistake after seven games.
But it's also fair to question whether Chicago has enough established offensive talent around its young forwards.
Nazar is being paid for what the Blackhawks believe he'll become. That doesn't automatically mean he's ready to carry the responsibilities that come with the deal.
Saturday's loss wasn't about one player failing to deliver. Chicago had plenty of opportunities to generate something against Dallas and couldn't get much going.
The concern is what happens when those performances become a regular occurrence.
Nazar might eventually become the second offensive star Chicago has been searching for. Three goals in seven games certainly isn't a bad place to start.
For now, though, the Blackhawks are paying for a future they still haven't seen.
And Dallas offered another reminder that the present needs plenty of work.
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