Best Bears Bets Week 17: All I Want for Christmas is a Bears Win

At this point, it is hard to understand how the Bears will not finish the season on an 11-game losing streak. With the Seahawks on Thursday night and the Packers in Week 18, the future looks very bleak for a team that is mightily struggling. The situation has made betting very difficult as well. Our year stands at 29-37 after we easily predicted the Vikings beating the Bears, while Caleb Williams and the entire receiving corps had a terrible day. We took the Lions game off.

We'll call this week's bets a Christmas wish list. I don't really expect any of these things to happen because I don't know what will actually happen. In fact, some of these bets don't actually exist. But wouldn't it be great if they actually happened?

All odds by DraftKings Sportsbook, except the ones I made up myself.

Betting the Game

During this losing streak, the Bears have been outscored 224 to 135. Meanwhile, in the last nine games, the Seahawks are 5-4 and have scored 193 points. In the first half of the last nine games, the Bears have trailed 144-46. In four of these games, they scored 0 points in the first half. In one game, they scored three points. In one game, against the Packers, the Bears led at halftime.

According to NFL.com, the Seahawks give up the 16th most yards and the 13th most touchdowns in the passing game. To be consistent, the Seahawks give up the 15th most rushing yards, the ninth least number of touchdowns, and the 10th most yards per carry (4.6). There are cracks in this defense that the Bears could exploit.

However, the Bears have passed for the 10th-fewest passing yards and the 14th-fewest passing touchdowns. They have rushed for the 8th fewest yards, the 12th fewest touchdowns, and the seventh-fewest yards per carry (4). It is hard to understand how the Bears can perform better against even the Seahawks' mediocre defense.

Similar to the Bears, given the weapons that they have, the Seahawks have underperformed on the offensive side of the ball as well. They have rushed for the tenth-fewest yards per carry (4.1), the third-fewest yards, but the eighth-most touchdowns. On the flip side, the Seahawks have passed for the third most yards but the 13th-lowest quarterback rating and the sixth-fewest touchdowns.

At one point of the season, the Bears had one of the best pass defenses in the league. However, since former head coach Matt Eberflus was fired and stopped calling the defensive plays, the pass defense has completely floundered. Currently, the Bears have given up the 12th fewest passing yards, the 13th lowest quarterback rating, but the fourth fewest passing touchdowns.

I am not sure if the term, "Any given Sunday", applies to Thursday night games, but it is hard to see the Bears winning given their current performance level.

Christmas Picks: Bears up 14-7 at halftime and the Seahawks are 0-6 on third down conversions (instead of giving up first downs on third and long like the last two weeks - how loud did you yell at the TV when the Lions converted on 3-and-17 with a two-yard pass to St. Brown?).

Reality Pick: Seahawks -4 -112.

Betting the Quarterback

Caleb Williams has been lauded for his second-half play and grit to try and come back when trailing. However, many have also pointed out that his improved stats are really garbage time stats. Gaining passing yards and passing touchdowns when you are down by three possessions is meaningless when the opposing defense is playing soft.

Caleb Williams has also been lauded for his incredible interception-free streak. He has the longest active streak in the NFL, the rookie record, the Bears franchise record, and could break the NFL record.

However, many also point out the correlation between not throwing interceptions and taking an NFL-leading 60 sacks. Instead of taking chances, Williams is tentative, neglects open receivers, holds the ball too long, and takes the sack. Some have also blamed late call holding penalties on Williams. Again, how many times do you find yourself yelling at the TV, "Throw it away, throw it away."?

The flip side is how upset we would be if he had a multitude of interceptions. You don't have to throw into double and triple coverage to get rid of the ball; you can just throw it away.

Christmas Picks: Caleb Williams 250+ yards, +230, Caleb Williams 3+ touchdowns, +650. Caleb Williams, 0 sacks, 5+ throwaways.

Reality Pick: Caleb Williams Over 215.5 yards -115, Caleb Williams 2+ touchdowns, +150.

Betting the Running Back

If you have been watching the Bears games carefully, you'll notice that many of D'Andre Swift's carries, in fact, most of his carries, are pretty successful. Seems like he gets five yards more often than not. The problem is that when there is no hole, he isn't the type of power back that can open a hole for himself. He typically bounces to the outside and it usually winds up for a negative gain - hurting his stats in yards and yards per carry.

Further, they keep using him as a power back on goal line rushes, third and short, and, last week, fourth and short. Again, are you with me yelling at the TV, "Don't give it to Swift" in these obvious run situations with the defense loading the box?

After last week, DraftKings is not offering favorable odds for Calee Williams at 25+ yards (-135). I don't know if Williams pays attention to DraftKings, but every time there are favorable odds, he tends to run more often. This week, he'll probably just take the sack.

Christmas Pick: D'Andre Swift, 90+ yards, +310.

Reality Pick: D'Andre Swift, 60+ yards, -115.

Betting the Receivers

Keenan Allen has had a terrific last couple of games. Against the Vikings, he had six catches on 13 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown. Against the Lions, he had nine catches off 13 targets and a whopping 141 yards with another touchdown. In both games, there were times when it seemed that Williams was only considering throwing it to Allen.

Similar to Williams and rushing for yards, the Bears go through entire games without throwing the ball to Swift and then they explode. Very successfully against the Lions, Swift had three catches on three targets for 33 yards in the first half. And then they forgot about him.

DJ Moore and Rome Odunze each had decent games last week with 68 and 77 yards respectively. Cole Kmet remains a non-existent part of the Bears offense, which is criminal, if not at least negligence on the part of interim head coach Thomas Brown. Though he had a touchdown, he had only two targets and nine yards.

Christmas Picks: Keenan Allen 70+ yards, +125, DJ Moore 60+ yards, +105, Rome Odunze 60+ yards, +210, Cole Kmet 25+ yards, +155.

Reality Pick: DJ Moore 60+ yards, +105.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.