Best Bears Bets Week 15: Offense Needs to Show Signs of Life

Last week, we had an excellent opportunity to see what the Bears would look like with interim head coach Thomas Brown. After taking the Lions to the brink of defeat Thanksgiving week, the Bears had an absolute collapse against a very mediocre 49ers team without Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and half their defense.

Nonetheless, we had a decent week against the Lions, going 3-2, bringing our season tally to 27-36 before taking Week 14 off.

This week, we look toward the Vikings. Against the Vikings three weeks ago, the Bears had a phenomenal day in an overtime loss. Caleb Williams threw for 340 yards with no interceptions and two touchdowns. Though the running game wasn't much of a factor, four receivers had more than five catches against the blitz frenzy of Minnesota.

All odds are by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting the Game

Just three weeks later, is the Bears team the same team? After three nail-biting games in a row against extremely good teams (Packers, Vikings, Lions), they did not show up at all against San Francisco last week. In fact, it was really hard to decide which was worse: the offense or the defense?

The offense famously had four yards in the first half, while the defense gave up 24 points in the first half. On Thursday night, the Rams, whom the Bears beat, held the 49ers to six points (though they only scored 12 themselves).

According to NFL.com, the Vikings remain a force of nature on offense. They have the sixth-most passing yards, the third-most passing touchdowns, and the third-best passer rating. Until last week, the Bears defense was one of the toughest pass defenses in the league that held Justin Jefferson to two catches and 27 yards (though Jordan Addison had 162 yards on eight catches).

Now, the Bears have given up the 15th fewest passing yards in the league, the fourth-fewest touchdowns, and the 10th-lowest quarterback rating. Still a pretty good defense, but the jury is out if the defense can perform without former head coach Matt Eberflus calling the plays.

Meanwhile, the Vikings' defense holds their competition to the third-lowest quarterback rating, the 14th-fewest touchdowns, but the third-most passing yards. Worse for the Bears, the Vikings have given up the third-fewest rushing yards, the fourth-least yards per carry (3.9), and the third-fewest rushing touchdowns.

All these stats lead to the Vikings being ranked by Fox Sports as the sixth-best scoring defense in the league (18.5 points per game). The Bears are 10th, not too shabby, but not sixth.

Pick: Vikings -6.5 -115.

Betting the Quarterback

As mentioned, Williams threw for 340 yards the last time they played the Vikings, and Thomas Brown was the offensive coordinator. He was completely unfazed by the Vikings blitz-happy defense, but he continues to take big sacks at very unfortunate times.

The rushing game has kind of melted down for the Bears in the last few games. The Vikings held the Bears to 79 yards rushing, the Lions held the Bears to 78, and the 49ers crushed the Bears ground game to 68 yards.

Caleb is going to throw.

Pick: Caleb Williams 225+ yards, +110.

Betting the Running Back

De'Andre Swift is not getting positive odds from Draft Kings until 60+ yards which seems like a pipe dream at this point.

Williams is not getting positive odds until 40+ yards (though it is +210). Forty is a big day for a quarterback and Williams seems to be confused about whether to run, take a sack, or wiggle around the pocket for two or three minutes. He seems to choose the sack route more often.

Pick: No bet

Betting the Receivers

It is so difficult to know which version of the Bears offense is going to show up week to week. Can Coach Brown be the head coach and call the plays effectively like he did in that three-game stretch against all the NFC Central rivals? We just don't know.

Will Caleb Williams wake up before half time? If so, who will he throw to?

DraftKings is definitely betting against the Bears. They are giving +100 to DJ Moore at a paltry 60 yards, Keenan Allen is getting +135 at 60 yards, Rome Odunze is getting +145 at 50 yards, Cole Kmet is +170 at 40+ yards, and Swift is getting a mammoth +225 at 25+ yards.

The last time the Bears played the Vikings, Kmet had 64 yards, Swift had 35 yards, and Odunze had 39 yards. So, let's go big.

Pick: Cole Kmet 40+ yards +170, D'Andre Swift 25+ yards +225.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.