Best Bears Bets Week 12: Will the Bears Offense Continue to Progress?
The Chicago Bears had a heartbreaking loss last week, but the offense performed admirably. However, our bets were pessimistic about the Bears' offense after the New England game.
We went 1-5 last week, which leaves us at 21-33 for the season. Monetarily, we are still up a smidge for the year. Here is how things went last week.
The Green Bay Packers are the best team the Bears have played all year and they played them tough. We bet that the Packers would win by 6, but, as it turns out, the Bears should have actually won the game.
Caleb Williams beat the over (231) for passing yards and rushed for a career-high 70 yards. We didn't bet D'Andre Swift last week, but he would have made us money with 71 yards rushing last week.
Every receiver crossed their threshold last week, except D'Andre Swift who we bet. Cole Kmet had 42 yards, DJ Moore had 62, Keenan Allen had 41, and Rome Odunze (the only one we did bet) had 65.
All odds are from DraftKings for Sunday's game against the Minnesota Vikings.
Betting the Game
After last week's performance against the Packers, DraftKings is giving the Bears quite a bit of respect. Bears are underdogs by just three points to the Vikings. The Vikings are in second place at 8-2.
The Vikings have beaten quality opponents like the 49ers, Packers, and Texans. They also beat the Colts, who the Bears lost to, though they lost to the Rams, who the Bears beat.
It doesn't seem like the Bears have a chance, but they didn't seem to have a chance last week either.
According to FoxSports.com, the Vikings have the tenth-best defense in the league (the Bears are 14th, the Packers are 12th). Worse, the Vikings have the fourth-best scoring defense in the league (meaning they give up the fourth least points per game), and the Bears are seventh (the Packers are 10th).
It seems like Sunday's game will be a low-scoring affair, especially given the Bears' offensive scoring. The Vikings are middle of the road in passing yards but fifth in passing touchdowns (the Packers are sixth). The Vikings are in the middle of the league in rushing yards (116.4) but have the second-fewest rushing touchdowns (5)
The Bears still linger towards the bottom of all offensive categories.
How much more bad luck could the Bears have this year? Was last week's offensive performance a one-off or a trend? Bears offensive coordinator Thomas Brown sped up Caleb Williams' clock and got the ball out on time last week. Now that the Vikings have seen that approach, is it easy to defend?
Pick: Vikings -3 (-120)
Betting the Quarterback
Where do we even start to predict Williams' performance? He was so solid last week and virtually brilliant (again) in the fourth quarter. DraftKings is giving plus-money odds on yards at 225 (+155). He did that last week, and he has done it a total of four times this year. The over/under stands at 204.5.
The Vikings are notorious for bringing pressure which is not good for the Bears makeshift lineup. According to NFL.com, though, the pressure doesn't stop the completions. The Vikings' defense gives up the eighth-most yards to opposing quarterbacks. Conversely, the Minnesota defense gives up the fifth-lowest quarterback rating in the NFL.
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 204.5 passing yards (-115)
Betting the Running Back
DraftKings expects Williams to run this week. It was such a successful strategy in the middle of the season and it's mind-boggling why he ditched it for three games. We would expect him to continue to run this week, but he has only done that one game in a row.
Meanwhile, Swift has +145 odds at 60 yards, which he has eclipsed 6 times this year.
Williams picked up so many first downs last week with his legs, it should propel him to continue to lean on that tactic against the Vikings.
Pick: Caleb Williams +25 yards (-110)
Betting the Receivers
Draft Kings has increased every receiver's yardage threshold for plus-money odds this week. DJ Moore is at 60 yards (+145), Rome Odunze is at 50 (-110), Cole Kmet is at 40 (+200), and Swift is at 25 (+205).
Against the Packers, whose defense is only slightly worse than the Vikings, Chicago's receivers except Swift would get to these thresholds. Which Bears' offense will show up this week?
Pick: Rome Odunze 50 yards (-110)
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change