Best Bears Bets Week 11: Maybe Just Stick With the Unders Moving Forward

The Bears hit rock bottom last week. In a winnable matchup against the Patriots where the Bears could have returned to pre-bye week form, they instead hit a new low in offensive performance. In parallel, we hit a new low in betting performance, losing all our bets last week. Our season record stands at 20-28.

As the Bears did not score a touchdown for the second game in a row, it is useless to even review the bets from last week. Caleb Williams threw for 120 yards, D'Andre Swift rushed for 59 yards, and Keenan Allen had a team-high 44 yards.

A miserable day at the office.

This week, the Bears start the treacherous back half of their schedule where they play the Packers, Vikings, and Lions twice, the 49ers, and the Seahawks. It all starts with the Packers this week who NFL.com ranks as the 9th best team at the league, the Bears are 19th.

All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting the Game

I know, we all thought this was the year we were going to beat the Packers. It isn't going to happen this Sunday.

The most painful thing about the Bears is the sacks being taken by Williams and the offense. After an earth-shattering six sacks against the Cardinals two weeks ago, the Bears outdid themselves and gave up nine sacks last week against the Patriots. I was at the game, and it was painful to watch. Overall, the Bears lead the league in sacks taken at 38.

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Williams said, "That stat goes on the offensive linemen as if they weren’t doing their job, but I took a few sacks that I shouldn’t have." Yes, he is holding on to the ball too long, but many times the rush is on him just as he is receiving the ball in the shotgun.

In the same article, the Sun-Times reports that the Packers get pressure on the quarterback 24.5% of passing plays, good for 13th in the NFL. This is a recipe for disaster for the Bears.

Let's go deeper. Quarterbacks coach Kerry Joseph notes that a further problem is passing on obvious passing down situations. It makes the defense's job easier. According to Football Database, the Bears lead the league in false starts. Typically, this leads to 1st and 15 scenarios or turns 2nd and 5 into 2nd and 10. The Bears are 16th in the league at second down distance (7.9 yards), but they are 27th in third down distance (7.7 yards).

Guess what? Williams is one of the worst third-down quarterbacks in the league. Per the Sun-Times, on third downs, Williams is 31st in completion percentage, 30th in yards per pass, and 32nd in passer rating. He has been sacked second most on third down (17).

The Bears are last in third-down conversion, 28.7%.

To make matters worse, this is the best pass defense the Bears have played against in a while. The Cardinals and Patriots were not good pass defenses and the Bears didn't score a touchdown. The Packers give up the 13th fewest passing yards in the NFL and the 13th lowest passer rating.

The Bears ground game has been much better than the passing game, but it struggled against the Patriots. The Packers have given up the ninth-fewest rushing yards in the season and the seventh-fewest yards per carry.

Yes, the Bears defense will probably do pretty well against the Packers, but it's like pitching in a 0-0 game. The defense is bound to break at some point. On paper, this isn't a winnable game for the Bears.

Pick: Packers -5.5 -110.

Betting the Quarterback

As mentioned, this is going to be a tough game for Williams. Given the weapons he has, he should be competitive, but the injured offensive line just isn't going to work for him.

And it doesn't get better. The next week he plays the Vikings who get pressure on quarterbacks the most in the NFL (29.1%). The week after, they get the Lions on national TV who get pressure the eighth most in the league (27.1%).

When he does have time, he has had unforeseen accuracy issues. These stats compound into very few first downs, very few points, and very few yards.

DraftKings is providing positive odds at 200 yards, the lowest it has been all year. Can the new offensive coordinator, Thomas Brown, make such a big improvement in just one week? It is really hard to believe.

Pick: Caleb Williams under 193.5 yards, -115.

Betting the Running Back

DraftKings continues to show much respect for Swift, not offering positive odds until 80 yards against a very good Packers run defense. I believe the Bears will play from behind much of the game, so I am just not sure if he'll get the volume he needs.

Along with the pressure coming from opposing defenses, Williams has not been running like he once did. He is getting great odds at 25 yards, +130. But he hasn't done that in three weeks.

Pick: Caleb Williams under 20.5 yards, -115.

Betting the Receivers

As the quarterback goes, so goes the receivers. DJ Moore is getting positive odds at 50 yards, Keenan Allen at 50 yards, Rome Odunze at 40 yards, Cole Kmet at 40 yards (+225 by the way), and Swift at 25 yards.

These numbers should be a slam dunk, and they should all be bettable. But they are not. I would love to take the over on DJ Moore and 3.5 catches, but the odds stink at -170.

Let's say Williams does get rid of the ball sooner this week and hits short yardage targets, checkdowns to Swift and Kmet.

Pick: D'Andre Swift over 25 yards +150 (though I want to take Odunze at 40 yards +120)

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