Best Bears Bets for Week 8: Continue to Invest in Williams Legs
In Week 6 our bets were very profitable, and we went 3-2 lifting our season record to 15-14. Here is how things unfolded:
The Bears were barely favored against the Jaguars, but they blew them out 35-16.
We said Caleb Williams would throw for at least 275 yards but he wound up with 226.
We said Williams would rush for over 25 yards and he went for 56 yards which paid out a whopping +145.
We took a bit of a risk that Rome Odunze would catch more than 50 yards, and he had 40 yards in the third quarter. But with the blowout nature of the game, the Bears pounded the football on the ground, and he never got that last catch.
However, D'Andre Swift did catch over 25 yards and paid out +130.
Everyone in the football world is very excited to watch Wiliams versus Jayden Daniels this week (almost more than people want to watch Bears versus the Commanders). All odds are from Draft Kings.
Betting the Game
Choosing how to bet on this game is extremely difficult because we don't know the extent of Daniels' injury. Per CBSsports.com, Commanders' head coach Dan Quinn has basically said that it is a game-time decision. If Daniels is out, Marcus Mariota replaces him and this becomes a very easy bet. Take the Bears.
The problem is that the minute the announcement is out that Daniels is not playing, the spread is going to change in the Bears' favor, giving them more points. If you believe Daniels will not play, bet right now with the Bears at -3.
Further, if Daniels does play, we don't know what condition he is in. Rib injuries are very painful, could restrict his throwing motion, and he might be hesitant to run and take those hits. Again, take the Bears if you think Daniels is badly injured.
If Daniels, the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year, is completely healthy the numbers aren't very encouraging for the Bears. Led by offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury (who the Bears famously passed up for current OC Shane Waldron), according to the Chicago Sun-Times, the Commanders average 31.1 points per game, tied for first with the Ravens, 384.1 yards per game which is fourth, 165.4 yards rushing per game which is third, and 13th in passing yards per game (218.7).
Per NFL.com and every Bears fan in the country, the Bears defense is very good. They haven't played an offense of this caliber since the Texans (15th in offensive touchdowns) in Week 2 and they held them to 19 points. The Bears hold quarterbacks to the worst rating in the NFL (72.8, Daniels has an astounding 108.9 rating), the fourth least passing yards, and the second least passing touchdowns. Further, the Bears give up the 8th least rushing yards, 10th most yards per carry, and the 15th most rushing touchdowns.
Seems like the Commanders could play Daniels and pound the running attack, but the Bears' run defense has been better in recent weeks.
Conversely, the Commanders' run defense is middle of the league in yards, gives up the 6th most yards per carry, and the 16th most rushing touchdowns. Their pass defense is what is known as bad: third-highest quarterback rating, 19th most in yards, and the sixth most passing touchdowns. It is always hard to compare against Bears season statistics because the first couple of games were so bad. However, it seems like the Commanders defense is vulnerable to a balanced attack - the Bears' specialty.
This is a tough game to bet. As a Bears fan, it would be a huge win for the Bears, would validate the Bears offense and defense, and there is no reason they can't win.
Pick: I am not going to bet until there is a decision on Daniels. if he doesn't play, Bears, -3 points, at -105. If Daniels plays, I assume he will be at almost full capability, take the Commanders money line at +124. As a fan, I want to be wrong about this.