Caleb Williams has barely played three full games this season, and his name is already in the MVP conversation. It's true there's a catch, according to ESPN's Ben Solak, considering missed time can often be a part of the decision making process.
Solak is arguing December, not October
To be clear, Solak isn't prediction that Williams will win. He wrote that Williams will end up an MVP candidate who missed too much time, good enough to force the discussion and absent long enough to hand voters their tie breaker.
The numbers do a good job of showing why there's a temptation. Williams returned from his hamstring injury and immediately laid down lights out football in Atlanta in Week 6. He threw for 305 yards, completed 30 of his 36 passes, and posted a touchdown with no interceptions.
Among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, nobody has been more accurate than Williams, and that's saying something considering Williams has a career completion percentage of 61.2%. He finished last season with a meager 58.1% the lowest of his young career and one of the lowest in football in 2025.
The problem isn't how Williams has been playing. The problem is that even though his time missed was short relative to other players, it could be the difference that eliminates him from the conversation.
Jalen Hurts already lost this exact same race
Let's take a look at Jalen Hurts from 2022, also outlined in Solak's piece. Back in 2022, Hurts was playing some of the best ball of his career, and the numbers reflect that. Philadelphia was 12-1 under Hurts, he had posted 22 touchdown passes against only 3 interceptions, and he added another 10 touchdowns on the ground.
Hurts entered the Week 15 game against Chicago the betting favorite before he sprained his shoulder and missed only two games of the season. That's what ended up making the difference, as those two games are what cemented Pat Mahomes as the league MVP over Hurts.
Just because the history doesn't lend itself to Williams' story doesn't mean it isn't just another road block. Williams has flourished under the guidance of head coach Ben Johnson, and there seems to be no end in sight when it comes to what the pair of them can do in the NFL.
The core of Solak's argument is simple. If Caleb can remain healthy for the remainder of the season, and ball out in a few games along the way, it's rightful that he should be a part of the MVP conversation. The problem, is that unless guys like Brock Purdy don't slow down, that missed time could be the difference between taking home the award, or taking home another almost.
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