The Chicago Bears were one of the surprise teams in 2025, but could that surprise swing in the opposite direction in 2026? Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report sees the Bears losing 10 games next season as one of the bigger surprises in the NFL.
The Chicago Bears are predicted to have a dramatic drop-off in 2026
The reasoning is clear and easy to understand. The Bears' run last year was magical at times, considering all of the late-game wins, comebacks, crazy plays, and fortunate bounces that seemed to go their way. It is hard to expect all of those things to happen again, especially when it comes to turnover differential, which the Bears excelled at. That is also one of the least predictable stats from year to year.
The other reason for skepticism comes down to the division. The NFC North should be a gauntlet once again. The Green Bay Packers remain one of the most consistent teams in the NFL, and the Detroit Lions should be back after taking a year to reset some things. When you add in that the Minnesota Vikings still have a strong coaching staff and brought Kyler Murray into the mix at quarterback, it is easy to make a case for any team finishing fourth in the division.
That could obviously include the Bears.
Chicago fans have seen a similar situation before. Matt Nagy took over a second-year quarterback in Mitch Trubisky, who was coming off a difficult rookie season. The Bears got a few good bounces, made a playoff run, and looked like a team on the rise. However, things eventually stalled and never quite reached the level many expected.
Still, while the Bears did not repeat their 2018 success under Nagy and Trubisky, they also did not completely fall apart right away. After going 12-4 and winning the division in 2018, Chicago followed it up with back-to-back 8-8 seasons. Things eventually declined from there, but the drop was not immediate.
That is why predicting a fall from 11 wins in 2025 to 10 losses in 2026 feels aggressive. Even the Nagy-Trubisky era did not see that dramatic of a decline from one season to the next.
There are certainly questions surrounding the Bears. Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams still have plenty to prove, and there is always the possibility that things do not go as smoothly as they did last year. The division is tougher, expectations are higher, and the element of surprise is gone.
However, Johnson and Williams appear to be in a better position than Nagy and Trubisky were at the same point. Even if the Bears do not get the same breaks they received last season, it is hard to see them falling all the way to 10 losses.
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