If the Chicago Bears are going to take a step back from their playoff status in 2026, it will almost certainly be because of their defense. The biggest issue with the group is that beyond having a low floor, the ceiling does not appear to be too high, either.
Chicago Bears Defense Has a Low Ceiling
Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report went through the best and worst case scenarios for the Bears defense. The best case included slight improvement, while the worst case involved a complete fall off.
Davenport notes that the team had marginal upgrades on defense, and there is not much room for improvement. However, there is a chance the group holds them back from the postseason.
To be fair to the Bears, some of the offseason moves are being understated. While Davenport sees going from Tremaine Edmunds to Devin Bush as an even move at best, the Bears went out of their way to eat dead money and let Edmunds go. Meanwhile, they paid Bush above market value. They might be wrong, but they see a substantial upgrade in their defense.
The safety room seems to be where most analysts are getting their analysis wrong, though. The Bears are paying Coby Bryant more than Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker made combined. He is younger and more athletic than Byard. He is also more impactful and trustworthy than Brisker.
Dillon Thieneman is a bit of a wild card as a first-round pick, but he only fell so far in the draft because of his position. He profiles as a plug-and-play starter at safety.
The ceiling might not be a top-ten defense, but a notable improvement is still on the table. Much of that will depend on how quickly the new pieces come together. The team could see Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon healthy. If Bryant and Thieneman play as expected, the secondary could become a strength rather than a concern.
However, Davenport is correct that the floor is lower than the ceiling is high. The team lacks substantial bodies in its pass rush. They are relying on Austin Booker to take another step forward. They also need Dayo Odeyingbo to get healthy and produce up to the level that his contract projects.
The defensive front could expose the entire backend. This would cause the unit to fall apart. So, while the ceiling might be higher than presented, the low floor is still an issue for this team.
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