Bears Already at Risk of Regretting $48 Million Signing

Aug 26, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles looks on before a game against the Buffalo Bills at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images
Aug 26, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles looks on before a game against the Buffalo Bills at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images | Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

The Chicago Bears want to be a better team in 2025, and they spent a whole bunch of money this offseason trying to make it happen. The Bears’ offensive line was the main beneficiary, adding Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson in trades and signing center Drew Dalman. But they had enough money left over for the defensive line, adding Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo.

The Bears are hoping the new additions will be enough to compete in the NFC North, which featured three teams with at least 10 wins last season. But not all signings are created equal, and there could be one addition that could lead Ryan Poles to have buyer's remorse.

Dayo Odeyingbo Most Likely to Be Bears Free-Agent Bust

The Bears are hoping to strike gold after signing Odeyingbo to a three-year, $48 million contract during free agency. Odeyingbo is coming off four strong seasons with the Indianapolis Colts and had one of his best years as a pass-rusher with a career-high 42 pressures last year. But he does come with a risk that the other free-agency signings don’t have.

Odeyingbo can be considered a player on the rise thanks to his four years in Indianapolis. As his snaps increased from 173 in his rookie season to 746 last year, so did his pass-rush win rate, which started at 6.6% in 2021 and jumped to 12.6% last year. His pressures also gradually increased and made up for some of his shortcomings.

This is where the risk comes into play. While Odeyingbo is doing the little things right, he’s been inconsistent. After getting 0.5 sacks in his rookie season, he jumped to five sacks in 2022 and eight sacks in 2023. But he had issues finishing plays last season with three sacks and an 18.4% missed tackle rate.

These are the positives and negatives that come with most pass-rushers, as a sack is a top percentile outcome compared to generating consistent pressure. But Odeyingbo’s new contract becomes sketchy when you compare him to the player the Bears are probably hoping he will turn into.

Jonathan Greenard was a relative unknown before signing a four-year, $76 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings last season, but turned into one of the league’s best pass-rushers in 2024. Like Odeyingbo, Greenard’s playing time began sparingly with 265 snaps, but his snap count rose in each season outside of a 2021 campaign that was halted due to injury.

After a breakout campaign with 53 pressures and 12 sacks in 2023, Greenard cashed in. But it was more than just the sack numbers. Greenard was a consistent force on the field, posting pass-rush win rates of 10% or higher in three of his first four seasons, and capped it off with a career-high 15.2% win rate with the Vikings last season.

The Vikings’ gamble paid off big with Greenard finishing second in the NFL with 84 quarterback pressures and collecting 12 sacks to earn his first Pro Bowl appearance. With both players making around $16 million annually, it’s clear the Bears are hoping for a similar star turn across from Montez Sweat. But Odeyingbo will need to find a consistent pass-rush to his game in order to justify the front office’s faith.

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