Spring Training is over and here ends our Chicago Cubs Spring Stories segment. Last week, we talked about overreactions to the Tokyo Series and this week, we will talk about some optimistic predictions for the first month of the season (end of April).
1. The Cubs Will End April in First Place
On April 30, 2025, the Cubs will be in first place in the NL Central.
The Cubs have an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season. Per MLB.com, for the end of March and the entire month of April, the Cubs face opponents whose projected aggregate winning percentage is .529. These opponents include series against the Diamondbacks (7 games), A's (3 games), San Diego (6 games, 2024 playoff team), Rangers (3 games, one year removed from a World Series win), Dodgers (4 games including Tokyo, last year's World Series winner), Phillies (3 games, 2024 playoff team).
The stretch ends with the Pirates at the end of April which then starts a streak of playing a list of teams whose projected aggregate winning percentage will be .429.
If the Cubs would end that first-month streak in first place of the NL Central, they own the possibility of holding the lead for the first two months of the season. This situation would be the polar opposite of last year where the Cubs dug themselves a hole going into the All-Star break that proved too difficult to climb out.
The Cubs are predicted by many to be a 90-win team this year and claim the NL Central title. The Cubs could try to prove it right away.
2. Pete Crow Armstrong and Miguel Amaya Stay Hot
In Spring Training, the Cubs' best hitters and two of the best hitters in the MLB were Pete Crow Armstrong and Miguel Amaya.
Amaya hit .500 with two home runs, four RBIs, and an amazing 1.327 OPS. Amaya had an RBI in Tokyo. Crow-Armstrong had a .803 OPS in the last two months of the 2024 season and continued to be an offensive threat in the Spring with a .500 batting average, three home runs, four doubles, 11 RBIs, and an equally crazy 1.368 OPS.
Though they will face some stiff pitching at the beginning of the season, we can predict that both players will be hitting over .300 with a .800+ OPS. If the Cubs' bottom of the lineup could show this type of performance, it would be difficult to pitch around the Cubs' big bats (Kyle Tucker, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson).
Maybe even more interesting, with Crow-Armstrong and Amaya on base, the top of the lineup is primed to drive in runs and create wins.
3. Matthew Boyd Will Be NL Pitcher of the Month
The Cubs starting rotation is finalized: Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, James Taillon, Matthew Boyd, and Ben Brown. Javier Assad starts the season on the Injured List but will try to reclaim his spot when ready.
The Cubs didn't go big on free-agent pitching letting others pick up Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Corbin Burnes. Their big investment was Matthew Boyd (two years, $29 million) who came back from Tommy John surgery last year and had a 2.52 ERA in eight starts in the regular season and a fantastic three outings in the playoff.
Clearly, they hope Boyd's hot run will continue and the second year after Tommy John comes together even better.
Let's see if Boyd can serve up a sub 1.50 ERA in his first four starts nabbing April pitcher of the month honors.