Chicago Cubs are off to a hot start but it might not be sustainable

The Chicago Cubs have started the MLB season strong through 16 games, going 10-6 for the 5th-best record in baseball. The team has brought a good mix of offense and defense to the table, clocking in at an NL-best 5.44 runs scored per game and allowing just 3.63 runs, 3rd-best in the National League.

The Cubs have quickly outperformed expectations, and this has led to a staggering 110 expected wins according to baseball statistics guru Bill James’ Pythagorean Expectation. This is not to say that Chicago will reach this mark this season, as it is a small sample size of only 10% of the season, but it just shows how good the Cubs have been so far.

The Chicago Cubs are certainly outperforming their preseason expectations, as the prevailing belief was that they would be in for a rebuild after Willson Contreras left for the St. Louis Cardinals. However, the front office made an array of deals this offseason, bringing plenty of veterans to the team such as 30-plus-year-olds Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, Drew Smyly, and Tucker Barnhart, as well as two big names in Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger.

This active offseason left Cubs fans slightly confused as to the direction in which the franchise was moving, as they seemed to be stuck between a rebuild with their young core and a team trying to contend. Now, the team has one of the older rosters in baseball. This is part of the reason why the Cubs’ success may be short-lived, as they have a low number of players in their athletic prime. This, combined with the lack of standout talent on the roster makes the team’s performance potentially unsustainable.

The Chicago Cubs have started the season as one of the best teams in the league, but they will likely burn out sooner rather than later.

The Chicago Cubs have been major beneficiaries of some unbelievable pitching from starters Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele, as they are 2nd and 6th in the MLB in ERA at 0.75 and 1.42, respectively. While they are excellent pitchers, these numbers are not going to stay as low as they are. It is incredibly encouraging to see, especially with Justin Steele as he will likely be a resigning target for the Cubs. However, the two of these players have almost single-handedly won games for the team, specifically Stroman as he is 2-1 in 4 starts while allowing just 2 runs this season.

In addition to this outstanding pitching performance, some other Cubs have had seemingly implausible runs. This is especially true with Patrick Wisdom, who is tied with Pete Alonso for an MLB-best 8 home runs this season, including five home runs over his last five games.

The 31-year-old has shown that he has power, hitting 28 and 25 home runs in the last two seasons, but being a league leader and batting .281 is not something we can expect to see by the end of the season. His performance has even led to some calls for a trade, as the Cubs may be able to capitalize on his incredible stretch

Some positives that do seem sustainable are the excellent play from the top 3 players in the batting order: Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Ian Happ. These three were some of the more promising players on the roster and were expected to lead the team this season, and they have certainly come through so far.

All three are hitting above .310 and are giving batters in the middle of the order a chance to drive in some runs. It has been an incredibly encouraging stretch for these guys, and if they are able to keep it up it will pay dividends once Seiya Suzuki gets fully back and Cody Bellinger returns to old form. However, the Chicago Cubs may be in for some trouble later in the season if these batters lose their hot streak.