Forecasting the Chicago Bulls’ final 23 games of the season

The Chicago Bulls are soaring. They are 38-21 going into the All-Star break and ranked second in the Eastern Conference behind Miami. However, they’re only 2.5 games ahead of the fifth seed which leaves a lot of room for the standings to fluctuate as the season enters its final quarter.

The Bulls have the second-toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NBA behind only Milwaukee, who they play three more times. In fact, of the Bulls’ remaining 23 games, only 5 games are against teams that are not currently in at least the play-in tournament. 12 of their remaining games are against top-6 seeds in either conference.

Unfortunately, the Bulls’ current record against top-6 seeds in both conferences is 6-13. It gets even worse when looking deeper at their performance against top-4 seeds in both conferences against whom they are 1-10. They have 7 remaining games against top-4 seeds.

At their current win percentages, they’d go 0-7 against the top-4 seeds and 12-4 against the rest of the competition. With a record of 12-11 to wrap up the season, the Bulls would end with exactly 50 wins, a 50-32 record.

With 2.5 games only separating them and the fifth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, a 12-11 closing record and 50-win season may not even be enough to guarantee even one homecourt matchup in the playoffs.

The Chicago Bulls will need to improve their performance against top-tier teams.

Luckily, there is a lot to suggest that the Bulls won’t go winless against top-tier teams in this final quarter of the season. Primarily, the Bulls have never fielded a fully healthy team at any point this season. Before Patrick Williams got hurt, Coby White wasn’t back. By the time Coby found his groove, Lonzo and Caruso both hit the injury report.

Fortunately, by mid to late March, the Bulls might be able to field their first fully healthy squad of the season. Accounting for the time it takes everyone to get integrated and minutes to be readjusted accordingly, there could still be some lulls offensively. However, where there will be an immediate improvement is on the defensive side of the ball.

This is why I think the Bulls will be able to correct some of their woes against the NBA’s elite teams. Their issues against these top teams, be it Phoenix, Golden State, Memphis, Philadelphia has been their inability to get crucial stops.

Offensively, they’ve been able to keep pace. However, with a healthy lineup, they will also be able to keep up defensively. Against top-4 seeds, the Bulls score an average of 103 points per game but allow 116 points per game. Considering their season average is scoring 112 ppg and allowing 110, the 15 point swing in point differential is important to note.

With all this considered, I still believe the Bulls can split against the top teams. Unfortunately, they play the higher-end competition in early March before they get fully healthy. As a result, I think a 2-5 split among the top-4 seeds seems likely. This updates their record in the last quarter of the season to be around 14-9 and the final regular-season record to be 52-30.

Ultimately, I think the Chicago Bulls are one of the most interesting teams to follow post All-Star break. There’s a number of storylines to follow: Zach LaVine’s knee, DeMar DeRozan’s push for the MVP (and at least first-team All-NBA consideration), the return of Patrick Williams, and the integration of Tristan Thompson.

It will be interesting to see how they wrap up the last quarter of the season but I project they’ll finish 14-9 with an overall record of 52-30, and a top 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.