Chicago Cubs: Rotation is a major question mark surrounding team

Jake Arrieta is back with the Chicago Cubs, but the starting rotation still remains a major question mark heading into the 2021 season.

Back when the Chicago Cubs and then President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein were taking all the top offensive talent in the MLB Draft, it was made clear that pitching would be supplemented in free agency and through trades. Look at the 2016 World Series rotation, for example.

Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta were acquired in trades. Jon Lester and John Lackey were free-agent signings. The Cubs essentially ignored developing pitching prospects, and it’s finally caught up with them. The organization has gone heavy on pitching in the last couple of drafts, but the lack of a minor league season in 2020 certainly didn’t help things.

Heading into the 2021 season, the Cubs traded Yu Darvish to the Padres for Zach Davies and a haul of prospects. They still have Hendricks. Jake Arrieta returned to the club on a one-year deal, with the potential for the 34-year-old to return in 2022.

Behind those three lay a whole slew of question marks.

Let’s start with Davies, though. Like Hendricks, the 28-year-old doesn’t have an overpowering fastball. Rather, he uses offspeed and deception to get his outs. He spent most of his career with the Brewers and had a great year in San Diego in 2020, but he’s essentially the same kind of pitcher as Hendricks.

Kyle Hendricks is Kyle Hendricks. Now 31, he’s going to hover anywhere from a 2.50 to 3.50 ERA as he transitions into the Cubs’ ace.

Arrieta is not the same pitcher since the last time he was in a Chicago Cubs uniform, battling through a number of injuries during his time with the Phillies. In fact, he made just 12 starts over the last two seasons, posting a 5.08 ERA in four starts during the shortened 2020 season.

With the Cubs, Arrieta had an 8.9 K/9 and 6.6 H/9 in four and a half seasons. With Philadelphia, his statistics took a considerable dip — 7.1 K/9 and 9.3 H/9. Fans should temper expectations when it comes to Arrieta and be prepared to see a completely different pitcher.

At the beginning of the month, the Chicago Cubs added San Diego native and former Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Trevor Williams on a one-year, $2.5M contract. The 28-year-old is a former second-round pick of the Marlins in the 2013 MLB Draft. On paper, the stats don’t look great. Over his last two seasons, Williams compiled a 5.38 ERA in 26 starts and 6.18 ERA in 11 starts during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, respectively.

From an analytical perspective, the big righty features five pitches and has seen a noticeable increase in slider usage since the 2018 season. However, the results have not been good, as Williams yielded a .348 average on his slider compared to a .218 average in 2018. His fastball sits right around 92 MPH, but opponents hit .270 off Williams’ primary pitch last season. Perhaps a tweak in pitch usage is in order?

Alec Mills is probably the safe bet as the Chicago Cubs fifth starter. He pitched a no-hitter last year, but that’s looking more and more like a fluke. In 11 starts, Mills spun a 4.48 ERA with a career-low 6.6 K/9 in 62.1 innings. He’s under team control and probably has a loose grip on the final spot in the rotation.

Guys like Adbert Alzolay, Tyson Miller, and Brailyn Marquez could make a strong case for the rotation as the minor league season unfolds. Regardless, there is an uneasy feeling surrounding this rotation – quite different than years past.