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Chicago Cubs: Getting to know new Cub, Zach Davies

By Mark Steubinger

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 07: Zach Davies #17 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game Two of the National League Division Series at Globe Life Field on October 07, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 07: Zach Davies #17 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game Two of the National League Division Series at Globe Life Field on October 07, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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Chicago Cubs, Zach Davies
(Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /

Davies’ pitch repertoire

Although Zach Davies has five total pitches at his disposal, there’s one pitch in particular that Chicago Cubs fans should be excited about – his changeup. It’s one of the best in the game.

Actually, that may understate things a little bit. Davies’ changeup it isn’t one of the best. It’s THE best. In the shortened 2020 season Davies’ changeup had a pitch value of 11, the highest of any changeup by a wide margin. He uses the offspeed offering as his out pitch, throwing it over half of the time in a two-strike count to good effect – batters only hit for a .199 average against the pitch and whiffed against it 35.9 percent of the time.

Davies wisely began utilizing his changeup more than ever in 2020. He used it at a 41 percent rate, more than a 10 percent increase from 2019 and nearly 30 percent increase since 2018.

That bump in changeup usage has been a turning point for Davies. Although he was only able to make 12 starts in 2020 due to the 60-game regular season, he set career bests in ERA, FIP, and strikeout percentage. His 1.4 fWAR over his 12 starts was also a career best, extrapolating out to 3.5 fWAR if he’d been able to take the mound 30 times.

After his changeup, Davies’ next most used pitch is his sinker, but it’s nothing to write home about. It makes up 42 percent of his total pitches, but it’s largely what he uses to start an at bat. Over Davies’ entire career, batters have hit well against the sinker – a line of .280/.347/.417.

Davies’ third most used pitch is his cutter which he throws somewhere between 14 to 17 percent of the time, depending on where you get your pitch data from. Like the sinker, it’s just an average pitch that’s produced very similar numbers.

Aside from his main three offerings, Davies does mix in a curveball and slider on occasion, but infrequently enough that combined they made up less than five percent of his total pitches in 2020. Davies’ curveball may be a pitch to watch in 2021 because from 2019 to 2020, he raised his whiff percentage on the pitch from 7.4 percent to 25 percent, albeit in a tiny sample size of just 30 pitches.

If that pitch mix sounds familiar, well, it is. BaseballSavant ranks Kyle Hendricks‘ 2020 and 2019 seasons as the most similar to Davies’ pitcher profile based on pitch velocity and movement. Alec Mills‘ 2020 season ranks as the fifth most similar to Davies.

Cubs fans already know what to expect from Davies as far as pitch mix goes, but what kind of stats should fans prepare themselves for?

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