Chicago Cubs: PECOTA projections for NL Central seem off

The Chicago Cubs have had a rough offseason.

They let Kyle Schwarber and Jon Lester go. They traded away Yu Darvish. Things aren’t resolved with Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, or Anthony Rizzo.

It just feels like this team is taking a major step back. Their starting pitching and bullpen is nothing to be desired and their offensive struggles are well documented since winning the World Series in 2016. It is hard to see them being the best baseball team in Chicago or even close.

PECOTA seems to have unrealistic projections for the 2021 Chicago Cubs.

This standings projection thinks that the Cubs are going to go 85.1-76.9. That has them in the mix for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They have the Milwaukee Brewers winning the division at 88.8-73.2 which is wild. Most people probably have Milwaukee finishing in third or fourth place (Cincinnati Reds) with the St. Louis Cardinals winning it.

The addition of Nolan Arenado feels like the piece the Cardinals were missing to be the best team in the NL Central. Everyone else in the division had a good amount of money come off their books which means some good talent was shipped out of the division. PECOTA having St. Louis in third place and under .500 seems ridiculous.

Why does the projection look like this in all likelihood? Well, the Cubs and Brewers each have more success in the recent past. The Cubs have a lot of big names that the computers think highly of and that could elevate their game. Well, unfortunately, the games are played on the field and not on the computers. When Kyle Hendricks is the only top-end starter on the roster, that is not good for your chances at the playoffs.

The NL Central is not the only division that feels wrong on this ranking. The NL East is weird as the Atlanta Braves are significantly lower than the New York Mets. The Braves were one win away from the World Series in 2020 and the Mets made a few nice additions. With that said, there is no chance that the Mets are that good and the Braves are that average.

Across town, whether Cubs fans want to admit it or not, is a loaded baseball team. PECOTA projects them to have a worse record than the Cubs and that is just crazy. They have an outstanding starting lineup, bullpen, and a three-headed monster leads a rotation that has a chance to be one of the best in the league. That team can score and they can pitch. There is no reason to think they won’t win the AL Central, despite what these projections say.

Because the Cubs have a lot of players that used to be great and are champions, there is a chance they surprise a lot of people this year. If they do, they could even be better than these projections suggest. If they don’t, chances are they will be significantly worse. There is a lot going on with this team and it is hard to guess how they will play.