Chicago Bears: The Achilles heel of each NFC North team

Regression will show us that the Packers are who we thought they were… a middling team

When coming off a successful season, we often believe that our favorite teams will pick up right where they left off. In reality, that is rarely the case. There are too many outcomes in a sport like football for that to be true. If anything, luck almost never translates from season to season. It usually regresses, and the Green Bay Packers are prime candidates for regression.

They went 13-3 in 2019, but when looking at how all of those wins came about. It’s important to realize that they were 9-1 in one-score games. Data has shown us that wins and losses in one-score games aren’t stable. Meaning, the Packers probably won’t be as lucky in 2020.

The Packers defense also took a massive step from 2018 to 2019. The additions of Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos, and Darnell Savage obviously had a lot to do with their improvement. However, the opposing quarterbacks they faced were even more of a factor.

Joe Flacco, Matt More, David Blough, Kyle Allen, Daniels Jones, Dwayne Haskins, and two games of Mitchell Trubisky isn’t exactly a murderess row of competition. If anything they probably made the Packers defense look better than it is. Defense is unstable from year to year regardless, so with a tougher schedule, it’s likely they regress.

Now, there are ways to mitigate regression. The most proven way is to sure up any question marks on the roster. Yet, the Green Bay failed to make any immediate improvements this offseason. They brought in no help at wide receiver, made a lateral move at linebacker, downgraded at right tackle, and lost one of the league’s best slot corners in Tramon Williams.

The Packers still have the best quarterback in the division, so it’s hard not to pick them as the favorite. However, they made no drastic changes to their roster and weren’t even that good in 2019. Their spot at the top is far from secure.