Chicago Cubs: Kipnis shouldn’t be a mainstay in the lineup

Jason Kipnis will be a valuable part of the Chicago Cubs offense in 2020, but he shouldn’t see the lineup when a lefty is on the mound.

The Chicago Cubs garnered some great headlines after signing veteran second baseman Jason Kipnis to a minor league deal this offseason.

Kipnis is a hometown kid. He grew up in Northbrook as a huge Cubs fan, and just a few years ago, he almost played a part in crushing Cubs fans’ dreams during the 2016 World Series.

Now, after a nine-year major league career with the Cleveland Indians, Kipnis is one of the newest members of the Cubs, and he’s already generated some buzz. He homered in the first inning of the team’s exhibition game on Sunday night.

Although Kipnis has had a very successful career, he’s a few years removed from his prime, and rookie manager David Ross would be wise to limit his playing time.

From 2012-2016, Kipnis was one of the top second basemen in the league. Over those five seasons, he put up a .272/.346/.419 slash line, averaging 14 home runs and 22 steals per season while playing good defense at the keystone. Unfortunately, 2016 was his last strong offensive year.

Over the past three seasons, Kipnis has slashed just .236/.305/.403, a far cry from his impressive numbers of 2012-2016. While he’s still managed to hit for some power, the most notable decline has been his on-base skills. His walk rate peaked in 2013 at 11.6 percent and has tumbled nearly every season since – it was down to just 7.8 percent last year.

The Cubs know they’re not getting peak Kipnis production. They can’t expect that. What they can expect is a very valuable veteran presence who can still provide solid production, but only when facing right-handed pitchers.

Looking at his career numbers, Kipnis has a .788 OPS against right-handers and a .673 OPS against lefties. If we look at more recent stats and just focus on his 2019 numbers, the OPS gap is even bigger – he had a .756 OPS versus righties and a .633 mark when facing southpaws.

Unfortunately, the current Cubs’ lineup is already significantly worse against left-handed pitchers. Kipnis doesn’t address that weakness – he just accentuates it.

Three of the Cubs’ everyday starters last season fared much worse against lefties – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward. To make matters even more grim, three of the team’s strongest hitters against righties – the guys who the team counts on to perform well every single day – see huge declines in their numbers against left-handed pitchers.

Rizzo, Schwarber, and Ian Happ had the three highest OPS’s on the team when facing a right-handed pitcher in 2019, but when a lefty was on the mound, their OPS’s dropped significantly – 156, 144, and 162 points, respectively.

With some of the team’s top performers already putting up lower numbers against lefties, shoehorning Kipnis into the team’s every day second base role doesn’t make any sense.

When facing a lefty starter, Ross has three better options to pencil into the lineup than Kipnis.

1. Starting David Bote at second base. While he’ll mainly be used as a utility guy around the infield, Bote’s career .758 OPS against lefties would look a lot nicer in the bottom of the lineup than Kipnis’ .673 mark.
2. Shift players around the diamond to work Steven Souza Jr. into the lineup. He’s a bit of an unknown coming off a major injury, but during his career year in 2017, he had a .785 OPS against lefties.
3. Go with the even more unproven Nico Hoerner. He’s inexperienced and has a tiny MLB sample size, but he’d be a much better second base option than Kipnis when a lefty is on the mound.

Kipnis is a fun addition to the Cubs and could be a difference-maker as a leader in the clubhouse, but at this point, running him out there anytime the opposing pitcher is left-handed is a big mistake.