Chicago Cubs: 3 players hurt most by shortened season
Jon Lester
In December 2014, Jon Lester signed a six-year, $155 million contract with the Cubs, becoming the first big free agent acquisition during the team’s rebuild.
Now, five seasons, a 74-41 regular season record, a 3.54 ERA, two All-Star appearances, a second-place NL Cy Young finish, countless postseason heroics, and a World Series championship later, Lester may be in his final year on the North Side.
As an impending free agent, 2020 was always going to be a big year for Lester. But with salaries and contract offers for players in their late-30s dwindling over the past few offseasons, this season became more critical than ever for the 36-year-old southpaw.
In addition to losing out on an opportunity to prove to MLB team’s that he’s worth offering a contract to this upcoming winter, Lester’s also losing out on precious time to make his case for the Hall of Fame.
Using Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric as a barometer for Lester’s possible enshrinement in Cooperstown, Lester is still notably short of the standard. His current JAWS score of 39.7 ranks him 151st all-time among starting pitchers – his score is about 22 points lower than the average Hall of Fame pitcher.
A different metric – Bill James‘ Hall of Fame monitor – tells a different story. Lester’s score of 96 is just four points shy of the 100 mark, which signals that a player has a good possibility for election.
Why is there such a striking disparity between the two rankings? The JAWS system is very statistics based, totaling up a player’s best seasons and averaging it with their career numbers. On the other hand, the Hall of Fame monitor score accounts for hitting significant statistical milestones (i.e. 300 wins), being part of a World Series winning team, awards, All-Star selections, etc.
As a whole, Lester’s career numbers are very good, but they aren’t up to snuff for the standard Hall of Fame pitcher. However, he has a strong case when you look at more than just numbers – five All-Star appearances, three World Series rings, and being one of the best postseason performers of his generation.
Lester’s chances at the Hall of Fame were murky before the shortened 2020 season, but now he’s lost out on precious opportunities to continue stockpiling statistics to reach significant careers totals.
So far, he’s won 190 games during his career and therefore has a great shot at hitting 200. With a shortened 2020 season, his chances at getting even higher – 225 or 250 wins – looks bleak.
It’s the same story with his strikeout numbers. Lester has punched out 2,355 batters over his 14-year career. His declining strikeout rate already made hitting the milestone of 3,000 career strikeouts a challenge, but a shortened season makes it an even bigger one.
If 2020 does prove to be Lester’s final year with the Cubs, fans will have to get creative in showing their appreciation due to games almost certainly being closed off to fans.