Chicago Cubs: Reason to believe Anthony Rizzo regression is coming

Can Rizzo keep this pace?

I have noticed that Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts started listing a player’s on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) in the graphics, which is a much better gauge of how productive a player is. Just because a player hits for an average under .250 doesn’t mean he’s a terrible player, especially if he draws a considerable amount of walks that ultimately help the team.

That said, Rizzo has consistently been above or close to a .900 OPS, which is well above the league average. He produced a career-best .928 OPS in 2016 but nearly matched it last season (.924).

Source: Fangraphs

Per Fangraphs, Rizzo will post a .898 OPS this year, falling to .855 through the 2022 season. He’ll be turning 33 that year, and again, I don’t it’s unimaginable that Rizzo should be able to be a consistent run-producer for the next several years.

I’d like for him and the Cubs to agree on a contract extension after his club options expire. A three-year deal with a fourth-year club option would seem to make sense, given that Rizzo would be 36 when that potential deal is done.

But I also think that the Cubs would be wise to start grooming a potential replacement for him in 2022 either through the draft or acquiring a young first base prospect. Rizzo will likely go down as one of the best trades in team history and forever be remembered as one of the best first basemen.

At some point, though, his production is going to dropoff substantially, and it could come within the next couple of seasons based on several recent examples around the league.