Chicago Cubs: Reason to believe Anthony Rizzo regression is coming
By Ryan Sikes
What can we learn from Rizzo’s predecessors?
While first base is historically a position that exudes longevity, reviewing examples of players in the twilight of their career or have since retired can be beneficial to predict if and when Rizzo may start to dropoff.
Once a triple-crown winner, Miguel Cabrera, experienced a steep dropoff in production starting from his age 31 season. Traded to the Tigers before the 2008 season, Cabrera saw a gradual increase in offensive WAR through the 2013 season. However, since he logged a 9.1 oWAR that year, it’s been a steady decline, logging a -0.1 oWAR in 2019.
Albert Pujols was an integral piece in helping the Cardinals win two World Series titles, but he, too, has seen a decrease in oWAR since his age 29 season in 2009. That year, Pujols posted an 8.0 oWAR, but he’s consistently been below zero or close to it the last three seasons.
Similar dropoffs were experienced for Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, and Joe Mauer. Gonzalez produced a 5.7 oWAR during his age 29 season in 2011 with the Boston Red Sox. He had a slight resurgence with the Los Angeles Dodgers between 2013 and 2015, but fell off a cliff the final three years in the league, registering a -0.4 oWAR in 2018.
Votto prolonged the decrease in productivity, registering a 7.0 oWAR in his age 31 season in 2015. He held close to that in both 2016 and 2017 but logged a 2.7 oWAR in 2018 and 1.1 oWAR last season.
And finally, Mauer was converted to a first baseman prior to the 2014 season to preserve his health. He experienced a similar path as Cabrera and Pujols, logging a 5.2 oWAR in his age 29 season in 2012. He followed that with a 4.6 oWAR in 2013 but crashed and burned towards a 0.9 oWAR in his final season in 2018.
The figure below illustrates batting average for the previously mentioned players. While average isn’t everything in terms of defining how good a player is, it’s certainly a foundation for offensive WAR.
Source: Fangraphs