Chicago Bears: Do fans need to temper FA expectations?

With free agency approaching, do Chicago Bears fans need to temper their expectations?

Well Chicago Bears fans, we’ve almost made it. We are less than one week away from the beginning of the “legal tampering” period of the NFL free agency period. While teams cannot sign any deals with players until March 19th, they may begin to negotiate with players on the 16th. Although Ryan Pace and company appear to have some holes to fill, it’s worth wondering whether fans should temper their expectations, or risk being extremely disappointed.

All offseason, fans have been clamoring for upgrades at a variety of positions. While the quarterback position may be leading the way, there is a strong contingent of folks who would argue tight end and offensive line are the more pressing needs.

Regardless of where you come down on prioritizing those needs, it is safe to assume that the vast majority of fans believe all three must be addressed through a combination of free agency and the NFL Draft in April.

Free agency, though, offers the first crack at addressing some of these needs. At this time, they have just over $16.5 million in cap space according to Over the Cap. It is possible deals may be restructured once the new collective bargaining agreement is in place (if it passes). The new deal may also result in a higher salary cap. However, neither of these things are guaranteed, and with the voting period being extended until Saturday, we will operate under the current situation.

So before free agency kicks off fans may not want to get their hopes up as there is a real possibility the team doesn’t make a “splash move” at any of the aforementioned positions.

Let’s take them one at a time, starting with the tight end position. While Trey Burton had an incredibly disappointing season, he is still set to count for $8.85 million against the cap this season. Cutting him would result in $7.5 million worth of dead money. In other words, he’s not going anywhere.

They’ve already signed Demetrius Harris for $1.65 this season, and are paying Adam Shaheen and Ben Braunecker $1.8 and $1.6 respectively. This doesn’t include the additional million in total for guys like Dax Raymond and Jesper Horsted. At this time, they have an awful lot of capital devoted to the position. Are they willing to commit that much more? Instead, they may be comfortable riding with Burton, hoping he’s now healthy.

What about the offensive line? We can talk all we want about how much the o-line needs to be upgraded, but the reality is there is only one vacancy — right guard. Cody Whitehair, James Daniels, Charles Leno, and Bobby Massie, despite your personal opinions on their quality of play, aren’t going anywhere. So what about guard? Well, the top options on the market are clearly Brandon Scherff, Joe Thuney, and Halapoulivaati Vaitai, whose market value has been assessed at $12.5, $13.9, and $9.7 million respectively according to Spotrac.

That is also a lot of money to dedicate to an interior line position, especially considering the other needs the team must fill. It would be a big surprise if they were serious contenders for any of these players.

Finally, we come to the quarterback position. The idea of landing a guy like Tom Brady or Phillip Rivers seems like a pipe dream. Even trading for a guy like Cam Newton or acquiring Teddy Bridgewater seems far fetched. It appears more likely the team will bring in someone just good enough to keep the masses from revolting, but just bad enough to provide marginal competition for Mitchell Trubisky.

The name that keeps popping up is Andy Dalton, for whom the Cincinnati Bengals are asking for a second-round pick. While that seems laughable, NFL insider Benjamin Allbright said recently that a third-round pick is likely the sweet spot. First of all, if the Bears give up that kind of draft capital for Dalton, I’ll be physically ill. Second, regardless of the price, a guy like Dalton is not likely, in my opinion, to move the needle much on offense. He would be a slight upgrade to Trubisky but isn’t someone with whom the Bears could legitimately hope to have Super Bowl aspirations.

While the football offseason, and especially free agency, can be particularly exciting for fans, they may want to curb their enthusiasm a bit this year, or risk being supremely disappointed.