Chicago Cubs Rumors: Latest Arenado trade sets team up long-term

This is the second time that Nolan Arenado has been linked to a trade with the Chicago Cubs, and this one would clear up a substantial amount of payroll.

For the second time in a week, Nolan Arenado‘s name has surfaced in a potential trade with the Chicago Cubs. The first report suggested that the Cubs would trade for the 28-year-old Rockies’ slugger with either prospects acquired in a separate Kris Bryant trade or emptying their already depleted farm system. Arenado signed a lucrative eight-year extension worth $260 million last February, but the team is now looking to dump salary. The Cubs are in the same boat, so it was a bit confusing when the rumor initially leaked.

This time, ESPN MLB Insider, Jeff Passan, has connected the north siders as potential suitors for Arenado if they were to move Bryant in a separate trade. “They are not primed for some sort of a rebuild as much as a refresh or reboot — an always-difficult needle to thread, particularly if they hope to dip under the luxury-tax threshold. One source characterized the Cubs as doing due diligence, as they’ve done throughout the winter with myriad trade conversations, but the notion of trading catcher Willson Contreras and a higher-priced, underperforming player in an Arenado deal, then flipping Bryant to revitalize a mediocre farm system, squares in the short and long term.”

Ok. A lot to unpack here.

A trade consisting of Contreras and an expensive, underperforming player – which screams Jason Heyward – straight up for Arenado, is undoubtedly intriguing. The Cubs’ catcher has been unofficially on the trading block this offseason and is projected to earn $4.5 million in arbitration next year. The Rockies have struggled to replace Jonathan Lucroy, who slashed .310/.429/.437 in 49 games with the team in the second half of the 2017 season.

Heyward, 30, signed a mega-contract with the Cubs before the 2016 season but has yet to live up to the 2015 numbers that helped him garner such a deal. He was pivotal in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series with his infamous rain-delay speech, but his career 86+ OPS with the Cubs suggests he’s become a defensive specialist with a below league-average bat. Heyward’s $23 million AAV contract, combined with Contreras’ projected earnings in arbitration, would nearly be a wash in a trade for Arenado. It’s also a fair trade as the duo of Heyward/Contreras tallied a 5.1 WAR last year compared to Arenado’s 5.7 WAR.

As noted, Passan also has Bryant being dealt in a separate trade, presumably acquiring a top hitting prospect and a couple of nearly Major League-ready arms. We recently proposed a Bryant trade with the Washington Nationals in exchange for Carter Kieboom, Jackson Rutledge, and Tim Cate, and that seems evermore like a possibility. The Nationals are hell-bent on retaining Victor Robles, but the Cubs would be acquiring a Top 20 prospect in Kieboom and would have the advantage of keeping all three prospects around much longer than they seemingly would Bryant.

In all, the trades would shed essentially Bryant’s impending extension, and with Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood‘s salaries coming off the books after the 2020 season, the transactions would set the team up for a much more active 2020 offseason.